PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 20, 5:33 AM CST851
FXUS63 KPAH 201133
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flurries to light snow are possible in the Evansville Tri-
State through the day today, with any light accumulations
limited to grassy and elevated surfaces.
- Breezy winds today will precede cooler air that remains
through the weekend.
- Warm and active weather is forecast next week with daily rain
chances, though the highest potential is Monday night through
Christmas Eve.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
An upper-level disturbance is moving through the Southern Great
Lakes. Trailing to the south, a cold front is approaching the
northwestern side of the Quad State region, and will cross
through the next few hours. Temperatures remain near 40 ahead
of the front with an area of overcast skies in Southwest Indiana
and nearby portions of IL/KY. The front brings in breezy winds
and cooler air, with early morning lows in the upper 20s in the
northwest to just above freezing in the southeast. Winds today
increase to 15-20 mph sustained with gusts to 25-30 mph.
Flurries to light snow are possible in the Evansville Tri-State
from around dawn to sunset. Fortunately, accumulations are
expected to be limited to a dusting on grassy and elevated
surfaces.
High pressure moves through the Midwest over the weekend,
keeping conditions dry and winds light. Temperatures will be
below normal with highs struggling to reach 40 Saturday and
slightly warmer Sunday, while lows fall to the mid-20s. The
light winds will keep wind chills from getting especially low,
bottoming out at the upper teens to lower 20s early morning.
Activity ramps up for the week of Christmas as zonal flow sets
up in the upper-levels. High pressure located well to the
southeast will steer Gulf moisture to the Southern Plains and
eventually the Lower Mississippi. Low pressure tracking across
the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes brings a boundary near the
Quad State Monday night into Tuesday, with the Gulf moisture
fueling rain.
Another disturbance in the Southern Plains provides rain
chances Christmas Eve through Christmas Day. Positioning and
development vary across models. Storm potential is uncertain
enough to be left out for now, but can't be ruled out. Ridging
out east prompts models into a split choice of weakening the
system as a cutoff low or steering it more northeastward. A
subsequent system is possible in its wake for late week, but
model spread becomes high enough that the NBM just blends the
late week into a steady stream of chance PoPs. While brief
disruptions are likely as systems move through, temperatures
trend warmer through the week, reaching well into the 50s for
highs Christmas Day. Outlooks continue to favor well above
normal temperatures and precipitation for the 6-10 day period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
A cold front is moving through the Quad State region, shifting
winds to northwesterly and increasing speeds. Sustained winds of
around 15 kts and gusts to 22-26 kts are forecast through the
day today. A few flurries are possible in the Evansville Tri-
State today. MVFR clouds are moving in from the northwest and
will continue through the day and, in the northeastern half of
the Quad State, into the night as well.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 20, 5:33 AM CST---------------
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