CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 12:46 PM EST122
FXUS61 KCLE 211746
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1246 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough over Lake Erie today will weaken as high pressure
enters from the north tonight into Sunday. High pressure will
remain over the New England states through Monday. Low pressure
will enter the western Great Lakes on Monday and will extend a
cold front across the local area on Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11:15 AM Update...
Based on observations, webcams, and reports, opted to add
Mahoning County to the Winter Weather Advisory that expires at
10 PM tonight. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snowfall,
primarily across the northeastern portion of the county, is
expected through this evening. Locally higher amounts are
possible where the lake effect snow band persists.
9:30 AM Update...
Lake effect snow via a Lake Huron connection continues across
Northeast Ohio this morning. Snow reports generally range
between 1.5 to 2.5 inches with an additional 1-3 inches expected
through tonight. Highest amounts will occur across portions of
Lake, Ashtabula, Geauga, Portage, and Trumbull Counties where
the Lake Huron band will drift through the rest of the day
today.
6:50 AM Update...
The lake effect snow focus for today is setting up as expected
in the Northeast Ohio snow belt with the Lake Huron connection
being the main factor in the heaviest bands into Lake and Geauga
Counties this morning. Outside of this band, snow will be
scattered and limited in accumulation and therefore have dropped
Erie County PA and Cuyahoga County OH from the Advisory. Some
light accumulations are possible but the impacts should be
negligible.
Previous Discussion...
Overall, the lake effect snow across the region is rather
disappointing this morning with lots of dry air intruding across
the lake, causing snow to be less efficient. Most of the snow
is largely directly associated with an upstream connection with
Lake Huron and that connection is pivoting from the west side of
Cleveland into the east side with more potent snow showers
occurring in Lake and Geauga Counties, as flow backs a bit.
Overall, this Lake Huron connected band will be the main staple
for the lake effect event for today and there will be a narrow
area of Northeast Ohio that will see 3+ inches of snow, but
outside of that, there will just be some light snow showers with
accumulations of an inch or so. Will evaluate the Winter
Weather Advisory headlines later this morning to see if some
cancellations are needed. Erie County PA could be a prime
candidate for an early drop, as snow seems to be splitting NW
PA. With the band pivoting east, Cuyahoga County could be
another zone to drop sooner over later as just some light snow
will be favored in the eastern portion of the county, mainly
this morning.
High pressure will enter from the north tonight and help with
winding down the lake effect snow event. Dry air will continue
to enter with this high pressure system and will eventually just
shut down the snow, despite the cold temperatures aloft. With
clearing conditions, temperatures will drop considerably tonight
with lows in the teens and perhaps even the single digits in
some sheltered locations. Dry conditions will be expected on
Sunday with highs generally in the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave disturbance will move east through the Great
Lakes on Monday, ushering in another opportunity for rain and/or
snow showers Monday night into Tuesday morning. Not anticipating any
significant impacts with this system other than a quick inch of snow
possible across Northwest Pennsylvania. Behind this, warm air
advection and upper-level ridging will arrive across much of the
Central and Eastern CONUS. Dry weather is favored for Tuesday as
temperatures remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s under cloudy
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period appears to favor a mostly dry and quiescent
forecast as broad upper-level ridging encompasses much of the
Eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure across New England should keep
any widespread precipitation chances at bay, although there remain
low probabilities of light rain and/or drizzle Wednesday night into
Thursday as a weakening upper-level wave crosses the Great Lakes.
Confidence is beginning to increase for a system to impact the
region Friday into Saturday as an upper-level trough across the
Southern Plains on Thursday moves northeast towards the Great Lakes.
Above-average temperatures will dominate the long term period with
mid-week highs in the low 40s increasing into the mid to upper 40s
to perhaps even lower 50s by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Lake effect snow showers via a Lake Huron connection are
continuing across Northeast Ohio terminals. Generally MVFR with
pockets of IFR in heaviest snow showers east of KCLE. These snow
showers should gradually dissipate late tonight/overnight. Outside
of snow showers, VFR conditions continue at the remainder of
TAF sites with overcast mid-level clouds expected to scatter
out later in the TAF period with the introduction of drier air.
Northwesterly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon and early evening
will eventually become light and variable overnight tonight.
Winds will favor a southerly component by the end of the TAF
period.
Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with a rain/snow mix Monday
afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the lake this
morning, although anticipate the far western and eastern basins can
be expired by mid-morning as northwest winds decrease to 15 knots or
less. Winds will eventually decrease across the central basin of
Lake Erie later this evening, with mostly quiet marine conditions to
then persist through mid-next week. Elevated offshore winds near 20
knots are possible ahead of a system on Monday, though the marginal
southerly component of the winds should largely preclude the need
for a Small Craft Advisory.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
LEZ145>148.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 12:46 PM EST---------------
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