JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 11:05 PM EST998
FXUS63 KJKL 190405
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1105 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- As rain ends, much colder air will continue to move into the
region tonight.
- It will be cold enough for snow as the next weather system
passes through Friday and Friday night, with light accumulations
possible.
- Temperatures will warm early next week, leading to a
possibility of rain by Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
Low stratus lingers over eastern Kentucky late this evening.
Cooler air will continue to ooze in on a weak north wind
overnight under persistent cloud cover. Anticipate temperatures
slowly dropping into the lower and mid 30s by dawn, coolest
northwest.
UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
Last of the rain and more substantial drizzle is east of a
Pikeville to Hazard to Middlesboro line and should depart fully
into Virginia by around 10 PM EST. Still some light patchy drizzle
cannot be ruled out for a few hours thereafter. This is well
captured by the current forecast. Only made a few tweaks to bring
temperature and sky cover forecast in line with latest
observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 440 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
A cold front is located in southeast KY late this afternoon and
will exit into VA shortly. Rain and drizzle associated with the
departing front will taper off tonight. A surface ridge will build
in from the northwest tonight and Thursday beneath benign west to
west northwest flow aloft. However, even with a ridge building in,
it might be difficult to shake the low clouds. Forecast soundings,
particularly higher resolution models, show shallow low level
moisture lingering in cold air advection beneath the frontal
inversion. Cold air advection will eventually wane and warm air
advection should return by late Thursday. However, exactly when
this allows clouds to decrease significantly is uncertain. Have
gone with temperatures closer to the colder NAM and its METMOS
for Thursday.
Will look for clouds to be broken up at least for a time on
Thursday night. With warm air advection underway, this will
probably allow for at least some modest ridge/valley temperatures
differences. Clouds associated with an approaching clipper type
system heading in from the northwest may begin arriving before
dawn.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
The upper flow pattern across the CONUS to begin the extended will
feature strong troughing in place over the eastern quarter of the
country, with strong ridging situated over the Rocky Mountains and
desert southwest. Another storm system will be moving onshore in the
Pacific Northwest, and will bringing good chances for precipitation
to that region. The fast moving system on Friday will bring chances
for light accumulating snowfall to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions. The snow will persist across our area Friday night into
Saturday. Based on the latest model data, this system will phase
with another, stronger area of low pressure as the latter moves up
the east coast, and the former moves across the central Appalachians
and into the mid-Atlantic region. Continued with the trend of using
CONSALL data for temperatures on Friday, to establish proper non-
diurnal trends and to keep temperatures cold enough, since the NBM
data is still to warm. Once the first system clears our on Saturday,
high pressure will settle over the region. This ridge will bring dry
but cold weather to eastern Kentucky over the weekend.
We should see a nice warming to trend to finish out the weekend and
start off the new work week, as winds shift to the south, and the
air mass modifies under ample sunshine. The pattern will become
active yet again Monday night into Tuesday, as yet another area of
low pressure moves through the region. This system will bring close
to normal temperatures and good chances for rain to the area leading
up to and including the Christmas holiday. We will closely monitor
the evolution of Friday's system, and any snowfall accumulations it
produces, for the potential for hazardous driving conditions across
the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
Generally IFR/MVFR ceilings at the start of the period will
persist through tonight before gradually improving during the day
on Thursday. Northerly winds at 5 to 10 kts this evening will
lighten and veer more easterly late tonight and tomorrow.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 11:05 PM EST---------------
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