MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 10:54 PM CST ...New AVIATION...668
FXUS64 KMOB 120454
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1054 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
VFR conditions expected through the forecast. North winds around
5 knots or less over land areas tonight will become a northeast
to east around 10 knots on Thursday.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
VFR conditions expected through the forecast. North winds around
10 knots will ease to 5 knots or less over land areas tonight.
Winds northeast to east around 10 knots expected on Thursday.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
In the wake of the earlier cold front, gusty northwesterly winds
will persist throughout the afternoon as dewpoints crash into the
20s and 30s. A surface high builds along the central Gulf Coast and
toward the Deep South overnight, which will allow winds to quickly
relax after sunset (except for locations along the immediate
coastline). Winds become calm across interior locations prior to
sunrise on Thursday with clear skies, which will lead to
temperatures tanking into the upper 20s to low 30s. Low temperatures
should stay above freezing for locations south of the I-10 corridor.
Tonight will also have optimal conditions for frost, especially
north of the coastline.
We stay dry on Thursday as the surface high slides over the
Southeast. Afternoon highs will be a carbon copy of today's
temperatures with dewpoints crashing into the 20s area-wide. Patchy
frost is possible again overnight Thursday into early Friday. 07/mb
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
The surface high overhead in the near term period will lift
northeast of the area by Friday. Surface winds turn easterly through
the day on Friday and eventually southeasterly over the weekend as
the high lifts away from the region. Friday and Saturday are
transition days as the very dry air overhead eventually gets
replaced by more moisture. Rain chances will be increasing as we
head into Saturday and Sunday with at least scattered showers
expected. Current NBM guidance and forecast PoPs are somewhat higher
than this in the late Saturday into Saturday night timeframe. We
feel that the current forecast PoPs may be too high, so we adjusted
the POPs downward a bit, but continue to maintain the generally
higher PoPs for now (just note that additional lowering may be
required). Regardless of what the PoPs actually are for that
timeframe, the best chance for rain is across interior southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama (along and north of the Highway 84
corridor).
Rain chances will be on the rise again in the early to middle part
of next week. A trough dives across the central portion of the CONUS
on Monday and a surface low develops over the Plains and ejects
toward the Midwest. This pattern will send another cold front toward
the region on Tuesday. Given that the best dynamics will be quickly
lifting north, we don't anticipate any severe weather with this next
system.
No temperature concerns throughout the long term. Low temperatures
stay above freezing area-wide and highs generally stay a few degrees
above climo (with the exception of Friday's highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s). 07/mb DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
Gale conditions are steadily subsiding along the offshore waters
this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for the
nearshore and offshore waters this evening with winds and seas
falling below advisory conditions around midnight. Advisory
headlines are possible again by late Friday night into early
Saturday for the Gulf waters. 07/mb
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 10:54 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
