IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 1:48 PM EST769
FXUS63 KIWX 151848
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
148 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Rain or drizzle will taper off from west to east through this
afternoon and evening. Then, renewed chances for rain is
expected through the day on Monday.
-Snow may be able to mix with rain or be the dominant precip
type on Wednesday as a system moves through.
-Temperatures trend cooler later week and into the weekend with
chances for lake effect snow returning as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
As the center of the upper low pressure system shifts off to our
east, lift is expected to transition to suppression allowing rain to
shut off. But it's only a quick reprieve as our next trough arrives
pushing rain back into the area early Monday morning. Given
overnight warm advection, we are expected to be warmer than last
night allowing for just all rain this time. Still looks like most of
the large scale ascent passes by to the south of the area. There is
a brief moment where some weak instability will be moving through
the Monday morning, but the better moisture axis is through the area
by around midday or early afternoon. This acts to limit the amount
of precipitation that we receive to around 0.25 inch or so. This
rain is quickly out of the area Monday evening as the shortwave at
the base of the trough swivels eastward and high pressure noses into
the area.
Next, two unphased pieces of energy swing through on the southern
and northern streams Wednesday morning. There are differences in the
location of an f-gen band, and therefore, the intensity of cold air
that's able to work into the area. Will look to continue a R/S PType
look that the previous shift had to at least designate the chance
for snow to mix into the area as a result. Sometimes the gradient of
these f-gen banding setups allow for a quick thump (maybe an inch or
two) of snow where the column is cold enough. This is out of the
area during the morning hours Wednesday.
Our next chance for precipitation looks to come in the form of a
clipper system between later Thursday and Friday time frame. The
track and timing of such a system still comes with uncertainty and
this would determine if we get precipitation (GFS) or if stays north
of the area (ECMWF).
High temperatures look to warm well above normal (mid 50s) on
Monday, but slowly reach normal mid week to below normal (freezing
and below) late week next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
Visibilities today have fluctuated between 10 miles and as low
as 1-2 miles in any heavier rain showers; this trend will
continue this afternoon as the last of the scattered showers
move through the area. Low stratus clouds prevail across the
area with IFR ceilings around 500 to 1000 ft expected to persist
this afternoon and evening. Another round of rain will lift
through the area on Monday morning, resulting in low end
MVFR/High end IFR visibilities down to around 3 miles. Some
patchy dense fog could also develop, as indicated by the NBM
and HRRR, which could result in visibilities lower than 3
miles. Throughout the TAF forecast period, winds will remain out
of the south at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 1:48 PM EST---------------
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