MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 10:52 PM CST ...New AVIATION...858
FXUS64 KMOB 110452
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1052 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
A band of rainshowers with an embedded thunderstorm or two is moving
slowly east across the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold
front. VFR/MVFR conditions will drop to low end MVFR, possibly IFR
on the back side of the line as it passes. By sunrise Wednesday,
general VFR conditions are expected.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
A band of rainshowers with an embedded thunderstorm or two is moving
slowly east across the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold
front. VFR/MVFR conditions will drop to low end MVFR/IFR on the back
side of the line as it passes. Am continuing to monitor for a
possible temporary near-frontal drop in VISBYs as the cold air
interacts with the retreating moisture. By sunrise Wednesday,
general VFR conditions are expected.
/16
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Upper trough continues to sharpen over the Plains, down into Texas
while making an eastward advance. At the surface, cold front was
analyzed from the Ohio River Valley southward across southeast LA
at 11.18Z. Ahead of these features, an axis of narrow but deep
moisture is characterized by PWAT's 1.5 to 1.7 inches aligned from
northern GA, southwest to off the southeast LA coast. Within this
axis, there is a notable band of pre-frontal showers and embedded
storms streaming northeast from southeast LA across the interior
of southwest AL, west of the I-65 corridor. Out ahead of the
convective line, mesoanalysis shows instability over the entirety
of the local area (ranging surface based CAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG).
Mid level lapse rates up a smidge since a day ago at 5.5 to 6
C/KM. With the sharpening of the upper trof, bulk shear parameters
have responded and increased with 0-6km west to southwest vector
magnitudes 40-60 kts. 0-1 km helicity values though have lowered
since this AM 100-150 m2/s2. Considering thermodynamic and
kinematic profiles, there is still potential of a few strong to
isolated severe storms, with a damaging wind threat and perhaps an
isolated tornado where updrafts can become more significantly
stretched. The overall severe storm risk though is low at a
marginal risk. The better risk at slight is focused more to our
northeast over eastern AL and west central GA.
Rainfall past 24 hrs has been notable along a narrow zone from
Stone Co. MS to northwest Covington Co. AL where event total rains
thus far has added up to between 2 to 4 inches. This has primed
the area for potential water problems in poor drainage areas as
coverage of showers, embedded storms (with locally heavy rainfall
rates) increase eastward through the remainder of the day into
this evening. Would not be surprised to see urban and small stream
flood advisories being issued or targeted flash flood warnings
where repeated storm motions over the same areas occur in these
areas through the afternoon and into the evening.
Cold front sinks southeast into the western zones late this
afternoon into the evening, crossing the I-65 corridor by around
midnight and sweeping rapidly east through the area before
daybreak Wednesday. Highest probabilities of showers/embedded
storms will trend eastward with the front. Out ahead of the front,
rains could be locally heavy along with a few strong storms or
marginally severe storms tonight. Following the frontal passage,
probabilities of precipitation are expected to trend markedly
lower. Lingering morning precipitation over the far southeast
zones and into the eastern Gulf zones should be clear of the area
by 9 AM Wednesday.
Cold air advection processes filter across the local area tonight
in the wake of the front with lows dipping down into the upper
30s to lower 40s northwest of I-65 and 45 to 50 closer to the
coast. Much drier and cooler (highs mostly in the mid 50s much of
the area) for Wednesday along with a brisk northwest wind gusting
to between 20 and 30 mph. The strongest wind in this range looks
to be confined along the coastal land/sea interface. Will need
much higher forecast gusts than is present in latest gridded
forecast to meet wind advisory criteria. Thus, will refrain from
issuance on this package. Overnight lows Wednesday night expected
to be colder over the northern zones at around the freezing mark
to 37 to 42 closer to the coast. /10
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Surface high pressure across the region keeps things dry through
Friday. Heading into the weekend, our next upper trough
approaches the region and high pressure shifts east of us bringing
back return flow off the Gulf of Mexico to help warm things up.
Rain chances will be on the increase as we head into Saturday
with generally isolated to scattered showers expected, best
chances over interior southeastern Mississippi and southwestern
Alabama. The next upper trough approaches by the beginning of
next week which will likely bring another increase in rain chances
Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will start the period on the
cooler side with highs in the middle to upper 50's Thursday and
Friday, with perhaps a few spots nearer the coast reaching lower
60's Friday. Over the weekend we warm into the middle to upper
60's with lower 70's nearer the coast, remaining this warm through
Tuesday. Overnight lows follow a similar trend with middle to
upper 30's Thursday night. Lows in the middle to upper 40's over
the interior and lower to middle 50's nearer the coast can be
expected Friday night through Monday night. A Low risk of rip
currents will exist through Saturday. MM/25
MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
A strong cold front sweeps through tonight into Wednesday
morning. Strong offshore flow sets up in the wake of the front
with gale force gusts likely across the open Gulf waters from 20
to 60 nautical miles. Seas out that way build gradually to
heights 6 to 9 feet. Gale warnings remain in effect for these
conditions. A higher end small craft advisory continues for the
remainder of the marine zones. Winds will relax late Wednesday and
seas reflect a subsiding trend. East to southeast flow increases
and seas trend slightly higher late Thursday, continuing into
Saturday as high pressure strengthens over the Carolinas. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 43 55 34 57 38 61 50 67 / 80 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Pensacola 48 56 38 58 42 63 53 68 / 80 10 0 0 0 0 20 20
Destin 50 62 42 59 45 64 54 68 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 20 20
Evergreen 42 54 32 57 34 61 44 67 / 90 10 0 0 0 0 0 20
Waynesboro 39 54 31 56 34 59 44 66 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 10 40
Camden 38 51 31 54 34 59 43 66 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
Crestview 45 58 32 58 33 63 47 69 / 80 20 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for
GMZ650-655.
Gale Warning until 3 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to midnight CST
Wednesday night for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 10:52 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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