JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 9:41 AM EST315
FXUS63 KJKL 121441
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
941 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures continue into Thu night, before
conditions warm to above normal this weekend into early next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EST THU DEC 12 2024
No substantial changes to the forecast. Blended observations into
the latest forecast. Mostly sunny skies should largely prevail
through the afternoon. The only exception will be an area of mid-
level cloud cover drifting in from Central Kentucky that could
dull the sun for an hour or two at some locations.
UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EST THU DEC 12 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 450 AM EST THU DEC 12 2024
09Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure northeast of Kentucky
and still providing cyclonic low level flow over eastern Kentucky.
Lingering moisture and this upslope flow is holding the last of
the clouds and likely a few spits of flurries over the higher
terrain closer to Virginia. Otherwise, skies are clear and CAA
continues on west winds of 5 to 10 mph with some radiational
cooling taking place, as well. As a result, temperatures vary
from the lower 20s in the more sheltered spots to the east to
around 30 degrees on the ridges in the southwest parts of the
area. Dewpoints continue to drop as dry air works in from the west
with the high pressure nosing into the region making for moisture
readings varying from the mid teens northwest to the lower 20s
in the southeast.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
terrific agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the further retreat of a deep and broad
5h trough well to the northeast of the state. As this progresses,
northwest mid-level flow will flatten out and become more zonal
while heights rebound locally. The slowing air stream aloft will
carry only weak impulses through the region - though a loose area
energy does pass into eastern Kentucky for Friday afternoon, well
out ahead of a small 5h trough consolidating over the central
Rockies. The very small spread among the models continued to
support using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast
grids with mainly just some terrain based adjustments for hourly
temps tonight.
Sensible weather features a chilly start throughout eastern
Kentucky, and although ample sunshine will warm the area through
the morning, temperatures will only top out in the mid to upper
30s most places. This will set the stage for another chilly night
with more in the way of temperature differences between the ridges
and the valleys on account of good radiational cooling conditions
- though marred by some passing mid level clouds. On Friday,
warmer weather be on tap as the winds turn more southerly while
more sunshine than clouds will be seen throughout the area -
allowing for highs in the mid to upper 40s, for most.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting the
temperatures tonight to better reflect terrain distinctions more
typical for nights of good radiational cooling. PoPs were near
zero in all guidance and kept that way.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM EST THU DEC 12 2024
Upper Level Pattern: Large ridge of surface high pressure in place
over the Great Lakes, New England, the mid-Atlantic region, then
southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Smaller scale ridge aloft
over the western Great Lakes, Iowa, and Minnesota. Vigorous area of
low pressure taking shape over the four corners region. Another
larger and stronger trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific
Northwest and central west coast all to begin the extended period.
Ridging will keep the weather dry Friday night into Saturday. The
four corners trough will strengthen as it moves eastward through the
mid Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley regions. This
system will bring another bout of widespread rain to our forecast
area Friday night through Sunday. Based on the latest data from the
GFS, ECMWF, and WPC guidance, as the initial trough moves away to
end the weekend, another system will form over the central Plains.
This second system will move quickly through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys heading into the first of the new work week, bringing more
rounds of rain to our area. This system will phase with a more
intense low pressure system that will be moving across southern
Canada. As this occurs, the overall system will slow down, keeping a
frontal boundary temporarily in place over the region into the
middle of the week. Rain will be most widespread late Monday and
Monday night, as the system phasing occurs and everything slows
greatly. The rain showers should gradually taper off Tuesday through
Wednesday, as the surface front becomes more diffuse and the upper
low moves away to the east and into far southeastern Canada Tuesday
through Wednesday.
As far as temperatures go, we should see generally above normal
readings for eastern Kentucky Sunday through Tuesday, as southerly
flow dominates across the region. Temperatures should moderate and
even fall slightly below normal Wednesday and Thursday, as a storm
system moves off to our east, and winds shift to the west and
northwest behind the departing system. No weather hazards expected
in the extended portion of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST THU DEC 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through end the period as wind
average southwest to west at 5 to 10 kts through the day -
becoming light and variable after sunset.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 9:41 AM EST---------------
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