CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 4:30 AM EST440
FXUS61 KCLE 130930
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
430 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region today before exiting to
the east Saturday night. Several disturbances will move across
the local area late Saturday through mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will persist across NE OH/NW PA through
the predawn hours before beginning to dissipate during the day
as the upper trough begins to lift northeast away from Lake Erie
and ridge builds in from the west. Have already seen signs of
weakening on radar, although when all is said and done an
additional couple inches of snow are possible in the Winter
Weather Advisory/Winter Storm Warning areas with locally higher
amounts possible where heavier snowfall rates persist. Snowfall
rates should be relatively light by the time the morning
commute rolls around since dry air is expected to build into the
mid-levels over the next couple of hours, but continued light
snowfall and frigid temperatures may result in continued road
impacts through the morning commute; will need to keep an eye on
potential for extending headlines (currently set to expire at
12Z/7 AM) if light snow/impacts are expected to persist into the
morning commute. Scattered and light snow showers may persist
across NW PA through this afternoon, however expect dry weather
by this evening as the ridge continues to build east. It will be
slightly warmer but still chilly today with highs in the 20s
expected. Tonight's lows will be in the teens.
Dry weather will continue through the remainder of the near term
period with clouds increasing from the west Saturday afternoon
as a warm front approaches from the southwest. A warming trend
will finally begin to unfold Saturday with highs in the mid to
upper 30s to lower 40s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft continues to exit slowly E'ward and
a trough at the surface and aloft approaches from the north-central
United States and vicinity Saturday night through Sunday night. A
particulary-strong shortwave disturbance progged to eject from the
trough aloft is expected to advance generally E'ward across our CWA
during Sunday afternoon through evening. Periods of precip, moderate
to heavy at times, are expected Saturday night through Sunday night
as a low-level return flow of warm/humid air originating over the
southern Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico undergoes isentropic ascent
aloft over our CWA. This precip will overspread our region gradually
and generally from southwest to northeast Saturday evening through
Sunday morning. It will take some time for precip to reach the
surface via the wet-bulb effect given the expectation of a dry
antecedent low-level atmospheric column.
WAA at the surface and aloft is expected to allow rain to be the
primary precip type at the surface Saturday night through Sunday
night. However, it should take some time for lingering air
temperatures and wet-bulb temperatures of 32F or slightly colder at
and near the surface to moderate Saturday night through about midday
Sunday, especially across interior NE OH and NW PA. This is where
precip has the greatest chance to begin as a wet snow/freezing rain
mix as an elevated melting layer develops before precip changes to
plain rain as the aforementioned WAA at the surface and aloft allows
the low-level atmospheric column to moderate sufficiently.
Elsewhere, sufficient WAA at the surface and aloft and moderation of
the low-level atmospheric column should allow precip to begin as a
rain or rain/wet snow mix Saturday night before changing to plain
rain by daybreak Sunday. The latest official forecast depicts snow
accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of a trace
to a few hundredths of an inch in interior NE OH and NW PA. We will
continue to monitor forecast trends for the potential need of a
Winter WX Advisory.
The net low-level WAA will play an important role in temperatures.
Lows are expected to reach mainly the mid to upper 20's in NW PA,
the mid 20's to lower 30's in NE OH, and the lower to mid 30's
farther west Saturday evening before readings moderate slightly by
daybreak Sunday. Daytime highs are expected to reach mainly the
upper 30's to upper 40's Sunday afternoon. Lows are expected to
reach mainly the mid 30's to lower 40's around daybreak Monday.
Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances are expected to impact our region on Monday through
Monday night. At the surface, net troughing is expected. A warm
front is expected to sweep N'ward through our CWA on Monday and be
followed by a cold front set to sweep E'ward trough our region
Monday night. Periods of rain, moderate to heavy at times, are
expected courtesy of moist isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave
trough axes and occurring along the upper-reaches of the warm front,
and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front. Low-
level WAA will contribute to highs reaching the upper 40's to mid
50's Monday afternoon, ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows are
forecast to reach the 35F to 40F range around daybreak Tuesday as
net low-level CAA follows the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering and scattered rain showers are possible on Tuesday morning
as cyclonic W'erly flow aloft/embedded disturbances affect our CWA
and the upper-reaches of the aforementioned cold front exit E'ward.
Current odds favor fair weather the rest of Tuesday through
Wednesday morning as a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft builds
E'ward across our region and is accompanied by stabilizing
subsidence. Afternoon highs should reach the lower to mid 40's on
Tuesday and be followed by overnight lows reaching mainly the upper
20's to lower 30's around daybreak Wednesday. Forecast certainty is
low Wednesday afternoon through Thursday due to large variability in
latest forecast model guidance. In general, cyclonic W'erly flow
aloft, embedded shortwave disturbances, and net surface troughing
are expected to impact our region as the aforementioned ridge at the
surface and aloft exits E'ward. A reinforcing cold front should
sweep E'ward across our region Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night. Periods of rain, changing to a rain/snow mix or just snow at
times, should occur due to moist isentropic ascent preceding the
shortwave disturbances' axes and via low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the cold front. Afternoon highs should reach mainly the
lower to mid 40's on Wednesday, ahead of the reinforcing cold front.
Low-level CAA behind the front should contribute to lows reaching
the mid 20's to lower 30's around daybreak Thursday and the mid to
upper 30's Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Lake effect snow will continue to push inland overnight before
dissipating during the day Friday. The best chance of snow will
be at KERI, but KCLE may be clipped at some point overnight or
Friday morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave is producing some light
snow at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG and expect this to persist through about
09Z before tapering off. Ceilings and visibility will likely be
MVFR to IFR in any snow showers and lake effect clouds, but
generally expect conditions to improve to VFR at most terminals
by afternoon. The only exception may be at KERI where lingering
light snow showers/lake effect clouds may allow MVFR ceilings to
persist through late afternoon.
Winds at inland terminals will be out of the west/southwest and
west/southwest along the immediate lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA with
light and variable winds developing by late morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are possible Saturday
night through Monday with rain showers moving into the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM today for
nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick and until 10 AM EST
today for nearshore waters from Willowick to Ripley. W'erly to
NW'erly winds around 10 to 25 knots early this morning ease to 15
knots or less by midday and then become variable around 5 knots this
afternoon through sunset this evening. Accordingly, waves as large
as 4 to 7 feet in the central and eastern basins early this morning
will subside to 3 feet or less by late this morning. Waves then
subside further to 1 feet or less by sunset this evening.
The ridge exits slowly E'ward tonight through Sunday night before a
warm front sweeps N'ward across Lake Erie on Monday. In response,
winds become E'erly to SE'erly around 5 to 15 knots tonight through
Saturday. Primarily SE'erly winds are forecast to freshen to about
10 to 20 knots Saturday night through Sunday night. These SE'erly
winds veer to S'erly on Monday in association with the
aforementioned warm front passage. Waves no larger than 3 feet are
expected in nearshore U.S. waters and no larger than 5 feet in open
U.S. waters.
S'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots veer gradually to W'erly Monday
night through Tuesday as a cold front sweeps E'ward across Lake
Erie. Waves are forecast to build to as large as 5 to 10 feet in the
central and eastern basins. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ012.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
OHZ014-089.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ146.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 13, 4:30 AM EST---------------
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