IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 5:49 AM EST328
FXUS63 KIWX 091049
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
549 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm temperatures again today.
- Chances for rain and drizzle through this afternoon.
- Cold air returns Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures fall
back below freezing.
- Snow showers and lake effect snow showers possible Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
Disturbance moving northeastward through central IN is currently
bringing rain showers and drizzle to many parts of the
area. Drizzle has been more likely on the northwest side of the
disturbance as a convergence zone is in place between the
southern disturbance and the northern stream disturbance over
the northern Great Lakes allowing for an area of lower clouds
and mist/drizzle.
Lows tonight mainly lower 40s to mid 40s. Showers and drizzle
will continue to move eastward through this afternoon with a
break in precipitation as some drier air entrains from the west
and this will help to lift/reduce some of the clouds into this
evening, albeit temporarily. Highs today once again in the lower
50s for most locations. Another stronger system with a deep
trough associated with an arctic low will drop southward into
the upper midwest on Tuesday and the accompanying cold front
will begin to push into the region along with synoptic cooling
due to the deep trough that stretches all the way through the
central CONUS into TX. As this system pushes southeastward into
the Great Lakes temperatures will drop across the region by
Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the lower to
mid 40s and will sink through the day. By Tuesday afternoon,
the lake effect machine will start with a rain/snow mix over
much of the IN/MI border but quickly switch over to all snow and
will spread south and eastward by Tuesday night. Lows on
Wednesday morning will drop to the mid and upper 20s.
Tightening gradients will bring increased northwest to west
winds by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Snow showers will continue
through Wednesday night for most of the area, but by Thursday
morning the primary areas with snow showers will be mainly north
of US-6 as the lake effect showers get shifted towards the east
with the westerly winds. Snow amounts north of US-6 will see
about 1-3 inches with a few locally higher amounts and south of
there will see trace to about 2 inches. Lows on Thursday morning
will drop into the single digits to the teens. Wind chills on
Wednesday night into Thursday morning will only be in the
single digits. Highs on Thursday only in the teens. Luckily, the
cold will be short-lived as by Friday we will start to see a
warming trend with shortwave ridging ahead of a weak disturbance
moving into the region. Over the weekend high temperatures will
be back into the upper 30s to 40s. Will need to watch Friday
night into Saturday morning for the potential for a bit of
freezing precipitation as a transition from snow back to liquid
takes place with the ground still cold from the arctic brush
this week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
Steady rain has moved NE of the airport, with some areas of
showers still passing near both sites for the next couple of
hours. Although the rain was winding down, low clouds will stick
around until closer to 18Z or after when frontal boundary and
area of clearing over W Illinois slowly works east. After fropa,
should see mainly VFR conditions, although may need to watch for
some patchy fog towards the end of the period with the moist
boundary layer.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 5:49 AM EST---------------
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