PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 1:31 AM CST412
FXUS63 KPAH 090731
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
131 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air for the
back half of the week. Any lingering light rain may briefly
change-over to light snow or flurries before being shut-off by
the colder and drier air. As a result, a light dusting is
possible for some areas Tuesday night-Wednesday.
- Temperatures will rebound closer to seasonal norms again
heading into next weekend, when next best rain chances return.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
The rainfall forecast was on track. It looks like our north and
west received about 1/4-1/2", and our far southeast around an
inch, which was the target forecast. The models dry us out
today excepting lingering light drizzle/rain with maybe up to an
additional tenth of an inch (high end) in our far southeast,
also on target w/forecast.
Looking ahead, the next low pressure wave developing now along
the Red River moves into the TN Valley tonight, which brings
our next best return rain chance, esp across our south and
east. It lifts into the Commonwealth Tuesday, dragging a cold
front across the PAH FA. This cold air slamming in from behind
may change-over any lingering light rain to light snow or
flurries before it shuts it off completely. The NBM produces 2
to 3 tenths of an inch across the far eastern Pennyrile thru Wed
and this is probably gracious with amounts and lingering into
Wed. It however does not pick up on some of the deterministic
output of a few hundredths of an inch liquid QPF squeezed out by
the passing wave of energy across the I-64 corridor from SEIL
into SWIN Wed PM, suggesting a light dusting of 2-3 tenths of
an inch snowfall possible there as well.
Cold/dry will be the rule for the back half of the week
thereafter. Lows Wed night will drop into the teens north to
around 20 south...and highs Thursday will largely be in the
30s...the coldest time frame. We climb back into the 40s Friday,
before moderating closer to seasonal norms over the
weekend...when the next chance of pcpn appears.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Rain at the terminals has drawn down for now but time/height
cross sections indicate with high near surface RH, bases will
remain restricted with patchy light drizzle/mist possible early
today. Expect bases to improve later during the day today but
likely retain some restriction before rain chances pick up again
on the back half of the forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 1:31 AM CST---------------
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