PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 11:45 PM CST879
FXUS63 KPAH 090545
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will overspread the area through the evening and come to
an end overnight. Rainfall amounts will range from around a
quarter inch in the far northwest to near one inch in the far
southeast. Another period of light rain is possible over west
Kentucky Monday night into Tuesday.
- A cold front will pass Tuesday, leading to a much cooler last
half of the work week. A period of very light snow or
flurries is possible over the Evansville Tri State Wednesday.
- Temperatures will rebound closer to seasonal norms again
heading into next weekend, when rain chances return.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
Areas of light rain spread across southern portions of the
region much earlier than anticipated today, but the main solid
area of rain/showers is still poised to enter southeast Missouri
by sunset and then overspread the entire region quickly this
evening before coming to an end overnight. There appears to be a
decent chance of drizzle lingering through the night especially
in the east/northeast. QPF has remained nearly the same with
near an inch expected over southern portions of west Kentucky,
and only around a quarter inch along the northwest periphery of
the region.
A new development for tonight's forecast is some elevated
instability along I-64 in southern Illinois around midnight.
This is related to some steep mid-level lapse rates
accompanying the cold core of the upper system through that
area. Decided to add in a slight chance of thunder there just
to be safe.
The entire region should dry out by midday Monday and stay that
way through the remainder of the day. Guidance is struggling to
come to a consensus on the strength and path of the surface wave
Monday night into Tuesday. The NBM has likely PoPs in the far
southeast, but WPC only has a few hundredths of QPF. It is still
possible that the wave could end up stronger and pull the
precipitation back farther northwest across the area, which
would likely lead to greater QPF over west Kentucky. We will
keep an eye on it.
Behind the surface wave, gusty northwest winds will bring in
much cooler air, which will be felt Wednesday and especially
Thursday. Guidance has trended colder and drier for the last
half of the week. Upper teens and lower 20s are expected for
lows Wednesday night, and highs Thursday will range from the
upper 20s in the far north to the lower 40s in the far west.
The ECMWF remains bullish for a period of light snow or at
least some flurries pushing east across northern portions of
southern Illinois and the Evansville Tri State ahead of the
main upper trough line Wednesday afternoon. There is still no
consensus on that possibility, but we do have 20-30% PoPs and it
would definitely fall as snow on Wednesday. We will keep a close
eye on it.
A warm up is still in store for the Quad State next weekend with
zonal flow aloft expected. However, there is a growing consensus
for a disturbance to bring some decent warm advection rain
across the region Friday night through Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024
Rain will continue to taper off from west to east overnight,
leaving behind IFR ceilings that will gradually transition to
low MVFR throughout Monday. Southwest winds around 10 knots will
gradually decrease to 5 to 10 knots on Monday before going calm
Monday evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...RJP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 11:45 PM CST---------------
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