ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 6:52 PM EST441
FXUS61 KILN 102352
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
652 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Several chances for light snow tonight and Wednesday as low
pressure moves east of the region. Much below normal
temperatures arrive Thursday and linger into Friday.
Temperatures trend warmer into the weekend as another low
pressure brings the next chance for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Still dealing with some lingering rain across central Ohio this
afternoon as low-level moisture advection gradually fades. Drier
air briefly moves in for this evening with improvements in sky
cover already being observed across eastern Indiana and
west-central Ohio.
A shortwave will accelerate northeastward into the Ohio Valley
tonight with vertical lift gradually saturating the atmosphere
overnight. This is already occurring over eastern Oklahoma and
Arkansas so this feature will be easily tracked as the shortwave
moves northeast. Confidence remains fairly high that any snow
accumulations more than a light dusting would occur closer to
the US-23 corridor(Scioto River Valley region) including
central Ohio through sunrise. Temperatures around freezing would
allow for the development of some slick spots in this region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low pressure to the northeast of the region continues
to deepen through the day on Wednesday, causing winds to
increase across the area. Gusts between 20 and 30 mph occur area
wide during the afternoon before a brief decrease ahead of an
approaching front.
While the PV anomaly is displaced north of the local area,
enough convergence will occur along a secondary cold front
approaching the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening.
Here are a few factors to keep in mind regarding the potential
for slick conditions:
Air temperatures will be near freezing with decreasing solar
insolation. Where modest snow rates occur, large dendrites,
supported by favorable temperature profiles aloft, will help to
cool road temperatures to where quick accumulations will be
possible.
The forcing is not overly focused, limiting the potential for
linear bands of snow. Instead, more cellular type structures
likely reduce the ability for classic snow squall conditions.
As the front moves through, winds will maximize in the 35 to 40
mph range with some wind gusts to 45 mph possible. These winds
remain elevated into the late evening hours, especially across
the I-70 corridor.
Temperatures drop rapidly behind the front, support wind chill
values a few degrees below zero into the long term period.
The winds, potential for snow showers, and cold weather remain
highlighted in the HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A very cold airmass will be in place for Thursday. Wind chill
values Thursday morning will be in the negative single digits to
single digits in most locations. Will continue to highlight the
cold in the HWO. Cold weather will continue Thursday night with
lows in the teens to the lower 20s.
There will start to be some WAA on Friday allowing temperatures
to climb into the middle 30s to the middle 40s. Lows will drop
into the middle 20s to lower 30s Friday night. Models continue
to vary on how quickly the precipitation begin to moves into the
region Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will likely
start to rise late in the overnight Friday night, however if
precipitation does come in on the quicker side then there will
be at least a small potential for some freezing rain across
northern portions of the area.
Temperatures will continue to climb on Saturday with highs in
the 40s. Rain will continue to overspread the region. Rain
chances will continue into Sunday before tapering off. Another
system will be possible later Monday into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures are warm enough that rain is expected with this
system as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Band of MVFR/IFR CIGs is shifting eastward near the start of the
taf period. However, another complex of MVFR/IFR CIGs will
rapidly build in from the northwest early tonight, leading to
reductions for the majority of the period at every terminal.
Additionally, a band of light snow will sweep through the region
early Wednesday morning. MVFR reductions for snow are likely,
with brief IFR vsbys possible.
Winds will shift from the northwest tonight to become more due
west on Wednesday. An increase in winds is expected on
Wednesday, with sustained 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts. MVFR
CIGs are forecast to linger for majority of the day based on
latest guidance. VFR expected to return to KCMH/KLCK the
earliest, likely by early to mid afternoon.
Additional snow showers expected to develop Wednesday evening
and persist overnight.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds up to 35 knots possible Wednesday night.
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 6:52 PM EST---------------
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