JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 4:28 PM EST963
FXUS63 KJKL 082128
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
428 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures quickly warm under breezy southwest winds to above
normal readings this afternoon and Monday.
- Periods of Rain that likely ends as snow is should bring a
widespread 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rainfall through Wednesday.
- Light snow is possible from late Tuesday night into Wednesday
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 420 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2024
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered near the
OK/KS border with an associated shortwave trough south to TX with
the axis of shortwave ridging over the southeastern COnus to Lower
OH Valley region to western Great Lakes. A trough from eastern
Canada and into the Northeast/Maritimes was continuing to depart
further to the northeast while an upper level low was near the
MT/ND/Saskatchewan border with broad trough to the south into
portions of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains. At the
surface, a ridge high pressure extended from the western Atlantic
into the southeastern Conus while a sfc low was organizing near
the TX/LA border area and another sfc low was near the US/Canadian
border near the border area of Saskatchewan/Manitoba and ND with
a frontal zone extending into the Northern to Central Plains to
western Conus. In southwesterly flow, temperatures across south
central and eastern KY moderated well int the 50s to low 60 except
for the highest terrain locations above 3000 feet.
Tonight, the upper level low should trek into the mid MS Valley
and then the OH Valley and become an open wave. This shortwave
reaches the eastern Great Lakes to mid Atlantic by midday on
Monday and then the northeast during the afternoon to evening.
Southwest flow aloft will persist behind this system into Monday
night with an additional shortwave entering the OH Valley late in
the short term period in advance of a deepening mid and upper
level trough over the Central Conus. At the surface, a weak
reflection should track into the Lower OH Valley from the Lower MS
Valley tonight and weaken as it reaches the Commonwealth as the
shortwave trough shears out to the northeast. A deeper sfc low
will track from the Northern Plains/upper MS Valley and into the
Great Lakes tonight into Monday. The triple point should reach
Lake Huron on Monday evening while the trailing cold front nears
the Lower OH Valley to Southern Plains. As the next shortwave
trough approaches from the southwest, a sfc wave should ride
northeast along the boundary into the TN Valley region late in the
period.
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening across
eastern KY as moisture increases substantially ahead of the
shortwave trough and sfc low approaching from the southwest. PW is
progged to increase from 0.6 to 0.8 inches at present to the 1 to
1.25 range around midnight tonight peaking int hat range ahead of
the shortwave before drier air works in later tonight and Monday
per the 12Z HREF with PW dropping to the 0.5 to 0.7 inch range at
that point. A relative lull in precipitation chances is
anticipated behind the departing shortwave by mid to late morning
Monday into Monday afternoon. As the sfc wave begins to develop to
the southwest and the next shortwave approaches, isolated to
scattered showers or patchy light rain may develop on Monday
evening, but better chances for widespread rain comes late as
moisture again increases Monday night with PW rising to the 0.7 to
0.9 range or so per the 12Z HREF. For the near term period
rainfall should generally average a half of an inch to an inch,
though some rain shadowed areas downwind of Pine Mtn in Letcher
into Pike County could pick up closer to a third of an inch per
some convective allowing model runs and 12 HREF PMM.
In southwest flow and in the warm sector to the south of the low
to the north and to the east of the trialing cold front/frontal
zone, eastern KY will remain mild through the period. Lows tonight
should only be in the 40s with highs on Monday again in the upper
50s to low 60s. Even milder lows in the mid to upper 40s are
anticipated on Monday night.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2024
Tuesday, moisture surges northward ahead of a positively tilted
trough, leading to rain showers through the day. Highs are expected
to rise into the upper 50s, to lower 60s. Heading into the evening,
winds will begin veering from southwest to northwest. Lows will drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s, leading to rain changing over to a
wintry mix and eventually snow showers by Wednesday morning.
Wednesday, the trough axis pivots and becomes negatively tilted,
with a 110 knot jet following suit. At this time snow showers look
to taper off heading into the afternoon, but light snow showers may
linger into the evening. Light snow accumulations may be possible,
Wednesday. Highs will be cooler in the mid to upper 30s. Ridging
moves in from the east behind the exiting trough, leading to skies
clearing out heading into Thursday. With clearing skies Wednesday
night, expect lows to cool off a bit more. Currently, forecasted
lows are in the low 20s for much of the area. Westerly winds may be
breezy during the afternoon, with gusts up to 20 mph, with locally
higher gusts possible.
Thursday and Friday, quiet weather returns, with higher pressure
briefly building into the area. This will help bring warmer air in
to the state through Saturday. Highs Thursday are expected to be in
the low to mid 30s, low 40s on Friday, and upper 40s Saturday and
Sunday.
There's model discrepancy on timing of the next weather
system, however next precipitation chances look to occur either
Saturday or Sunday. In general, a shortwave is modeled to form over
the Kansas area lifting moisture northward, east of the center.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2024
VFR conditions are expected to linger through 00Z as clouds
gradually thicken and lower from the west and southwest ahead of
an upper level disturbance. However, as this system approaches
from the southwest, increasing and lowering CIGS to MVFR for much
of the area are expected along with the arrival of rain between
00Z and 06Z. Also, LLWS will be a threat from about 06Z to 15Z
with rather strong southwesterly winds aloft while sfc sustained
winds generally remain 10KT or less. As the atmosphere continues
to saturate, MVFR and even some IFR for wester and northern
location should spread east through 09Z with a mixture of MVFR and
times of IFR expected through the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 8, 4:28 PM EST---------------
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