IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 9:50 AM EST831
FXUS63 KIND 061450
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend begins today into the weekend
- Rain returns late Sunday night into Monday with heaviest rain
across southern Indiana
- Additional precipitation chances through midweek, ending with a
drop in temperatures and potential transition to snow
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
Forecast is in good shape this morning. The clouds across central
Indiana have dissipated, but some mid-level clouds linger across
Illinois. Temperatures remained cold and in the teens, with wind
chills in the single digits common.
Some of the clouds across Illinois may make it into the area before
dissipating, so upped sky cover some in the west for a while.
Otherwise sunshine and some warm advection will boost temperatures
above yesterday's highs. Forecast highs might be a bit warm, but
will monitor how temperatures behave before making any changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
Most of the forecast area is clear at 07Z with the one exception of
a narrow band of lake induced stratocu drifting due south as far as
the Indy metro. Additionally an area of mid level clouds was
expanding towards the region from the west while showing signs of
subtly decreasing in coverage. Temps were in the teens.
The potential lingering cloud cover over the next few hours is
really the only mystery in what should be an otherwise quiet next 24
hours across central Indiana as the region remains under the
influence of strong high pressure.
The lake induced cloud band has been persistent over the last few
hours extending south from near Kokomo and Marion all the way into
the Indy metro. Closer analysis at 850mb indicates that the flow has
shifted to a northerly direction with even a hint of a N/NE wind.
This has likely aided in the cloud band backing into the Indy metro
from the northeast somewhat. This will be temporary as the arrival
of ridging at 850mb will force winds to back to westerly and
decrease through the predawn hours...resulting in the cloud band
shifting east away from the area and decreasing in coverage.
The area of mid level clouds currently across the upper Midwest
extending down into central Illinois is associated with a subtle
wave aloft traversing through the longwave trough. The cloud deck is
showing some signs of thinning across northern and central
Illinois...likely due to the presence of deep subsidence across the
Ohio Valley. With that being said...does appear there will be a
period of increased cloud coverage over the next few hours as the
upper wave passes through the region.
Skies will revert to mostly clear across the entire forecast area by
mid morning at the latest and set the stage for quiet conditions
with little in the way of clouds through tonight. A large area of
high pressure will track from the Ozarks this morning through the
Tennessee Valley tonight...with a predominant W/SW flow establishing
across the forecast area. Expect periodic gusts in the 15-20mph this
afternoon focused especially across the northern half of central
Indiana. A tightening surface pressure gradient tonight will keep
the boundary layer from decoupling with winds likely to remain in
the 5-10mph range all night.
Temps...a slow recovery from the cold temperatures experienced
Thursday will begin today as warm advection gets going. Low level
thermals support highs ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s
north to south. Lows tonight will be in the upper teens and lower
20s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
The long term will see central Indiana finally pulled out of the
anomalous cold thanks to a pattern change. The period will start out
with a warming trend and several days of SW flow leading to the
warmest temperatures over the coming week to be highs in the 50s on
Sunday and Monday. Also moving in from the SW is a low pressure
system that is expected to bring rain to the area by late Sunday. At
this time, a bulk of the rain looks to stay south but southern
Indiana could see over half an inch of rain. An upper trough, which
models generally agree it'll be of large amplitude, will quickly
follow. The associated cold front with this trough looks to catch up
with the moisture already in place, keeping at least chance PoPs
through midweek. As temperatures drop Tuesday night into Wednesday,
rain looks to transition snow before exiting later in the day
Wednesday. Minimal accumulations expected at this time given that
most of the moisture will have exited the area already.
The colder airmass will bring highs in the 30s again for late mid
week and lows in the teens and 20s. The surface high in place will
provide dry weather for the latter part of the week as well.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 516 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
Mid level clouds drifting through the region early this morning will
diminish over the next few hours as high pressure builds into the
Ohio Valley. Skies will be mainly clear for the rest of the day and
through tonight. W/SW winds will be around 10kts today before
backing to S/SW this evening.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 9:50 AM EST---------------
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