ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 4:06 AM EST318
FXUS61 KILN 050906
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
406 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build into the region later today into
Friday. The high will pass south of the area over the weekend.
Temperatures will warm up next week ahead of the next system
that will bring rain to the region Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of a cold
front will be slow to relax this afternoon. Cold air advection
will end this morning as the core of the coldest airmass
translates through the region during the day. So gusty winds will
continue with a slight decrease later in the day.
There are some flurries passing across the region early. Band
coming off of Lake Michigan will bring some snow showers into
west central Ohio this afternoon with the possibility of that
reaching even into parts of central Ohio. Accumulation is
forecast to be under an inch.
Temperatures will continue to drop well into the morning with
very little rebound in the afternoon. Highs will only be in the
20s. Wind chill will fall into the single digits either side of
zero during the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Winds will continue to decrease and gradually back tonight as
high pressure starts to nose into Kentucky. The high will build
further into the area on Friday. There will still be some clouds
across the area tonight as a short wave swings across the area,
but then it looks like there should be a good deal of sun on
Friday. Lows will be in the mid to upper teens with highs in the
lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Friday evening, a broad trough will be moving well east of the
Ohio Valley, with the mid-level pattern flattening out somewhat. An
area of surface high pressure will be centered over the deep south,
very slowly moving eastward through the weekend. The ILN CWA will be
on the northern periphery of this surface high, with southwesterly
boundary layer flow initiating a warming trend through Monday.
There is high forecast confidence in a period of wet conditions from
Sunday night through Monday, with lower confidence in additional
chances for precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. At 500mb, a
closed low is expected to weaken into a wave as it moves from Texas
into the middle Mississippi Valley region on Sunday evening. This
feature will phase with a wave moving eastward across the northern
tier of states, bringing notable theta-e advection aloft into the
Ohio Valley region by Sunday night. With temperatures in the 40s
Sunday night, then into the 50s on Monday, this precipitation is
expected to be all rain. The stronger upper/mid level forcing will
be departing by late Monday, but an approaching cold front is not
expected to get into the area until late Monday night or more likely
Tuesday. Depending on the evolution of the upper pattern, some
additional forcing may develop. Even if this does not occur, the
surface front and the cold advection flow behind it could lead to
some low-end chances for precipitation by the middle of the week.
With cooling temperatures, any Tuesday or Wednesday precipitation
could be a mix of rain and snow.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main concern are the winds. While both sustained winds and
gusts have subsided some since their peak overnight, any further
decrease will be minimal until later in the afternoon with the
winds finally diminishing towards 00Z.
Forecast is for VFR, although cannot completely rule out a
period of MVFR ceilings during the day, with the greatest
potential for that at the Columbus terminals. But confidence is
too low on this potential to include in the TAFs at this time.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 4:06 AM EST---------------
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