BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 6:11 AM EST812
FXUS61 KBOX 031111
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
611 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through Wednesday, although a cold airmass
will continue to yield below normal temperatures today. Next chance
for precipitation comes Wednesday night into Thursday, as a clipper
system brings rain near the coast and accumulating snowfall in the
interior. A colder airmass moves in Friday and into the weekend,
likely with the coldest air of the season thus far.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Benign weather continues today under the influence of high pressure
centered over the Ohio Valley directing light W flow into southern
New England. This wind shift will bring an end to the ocean effect
clouds currently shown over Cape Cod. Despite plenty of sun expected
today highs won't climb out of the 30s, even sub freezing in the
highest elevations of the Berkshires.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight another good radiational cooling night is expected thanks to
clear skies and light winds. This means another night of
temperatures dipping anywhere from the mid teens (high elevations)
to mid 20s (along the coast). Wednesday we'll have one more day of
dry weather before our next system arrives. There will be some
notable changes from Mon/Tue though, as the surface low digs into
the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of the system will warm
temperatures appreciably, mainly over southeast MA/RI where temps
rise into the upper 40s by Wednesday afternoon. This will also bring
increasing warm advection clouds, but any precipitation holds off
until overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key messages:
* Accumulating snowfall still likely Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning west of I-495; rain in the coastal plain
* Gusty conditions starting Wednesday night and continuing through
Friday
* Below-average temperatures Thursday night through the weekend
Details...
Not much change from the previous discussion. Ridging builds in
across southern New England Wednesday and moves out by the evening
hours as our next system moves into the region. An upper level low
will dig into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night before moving
through southern New England Thursday. Winds shift S to SW with the
arrival of a significant SW low level jet, which will help advect
moisture through a deep layer and favor QPF amounts from 0.20"
towards the interior to almost an inch out in the Cape/Islands.
Guidance has remained consistent in keeping the snow accumulations
associated with this system in the higher elevations of the
Worcester Hills and the Berkshires where up to 5" of snow is
possible, supported by much cooler temperatures. Ensembles appear to
be in agreement about accumulations not exceeding 6". As with the
previous discussion, no snow accumulations are expected near the
coast: just rain. Some mixed precipitation along the rain-snow line
west of I-495 as elevation begins to increase remains possible.
The highest chances for precipitation begin to taper off during the
day Thursday as a front moves through. Scattered showers -- rain in
the east and some snow showers in the higher elevations -- will
continue to be likely going into Thursday night. The jet will
continue to linger south of the region, supporting the possibility
for gusts around 40 mph across the Cape/Islands. Some up to 50 mph
could be possible as well. Wind advisories may be needed for this
period as this looks to be more likely as we draw closer to the
event. Winds shift more to the west Thursday night into Friday and
remain strong through Friday night, helping clear out the area and
bringing in colder than normal temperatures as lows dip into the
upper teens across much of the area and the low 20s along the coast.
This cold stretch is likely to stick around with lower level temps
-- particularly at the 850 mb level -- are expected to settle around
the -15C mark until a milder airmass begins to progress through the
region Monday where 850 mb temps return to around 0C and positive
single digits. Southerly flow returns with this airmass as well,
drawing up more moisture supportive of some more rain showers across
southern New England.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update:
Today and tonight: High confidence.
VFR. Light WNW winds early this morning except 5-8 kt for BOS
and the Cape airports. For today, winds become more WNW to W,
then become light W to WSW for tonight.
Wednesday: High confidence.
VFR. Light W winds increase to 5-10 kts becoming SW then S.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy
with gusts up to 30 kt. RA, SN.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt. RA, chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Generally tranquil winds and sea conditions for boaters through
tonight. WNW to W winds around 10-15 kt, then becoming W/WSW
around 15 kt for tonight. Seas thru tonight 3 ft or less all
waters. Dry weather is expected, although ocean effect
cloudiness over the eastern waters could produce a sprinkle or
flurry over the outer waters. Wednesday evening winds begin to
increase with gusts to 25 kts over the southern waters.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain.
Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain.
Thursday Night: gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt.
Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow.
Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of snow, chance of rain.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain, slight chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday
for ANZ231-250-251-254.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJC/Hrencecin
AVIATION...BW/Hrencecin
MARINE...BW/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 6:11 AM EST----------------
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