PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 1:37 PM CST550
FXUS63 KPAH 031937
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
137 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Brief warm-up on Wednesday before another cold blast moves in for
the end of the work week.
- Warmer temperatures return this weekend and into early next week.
- Rain chances return to the region Sunday into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024
Surface high pressure parked overhead today will depart to our
southeast on Wednesday. Clouds have been slow to clear the east half
of the area today, with 1 PM temperatures remaining in the 20s for
those areas. Another frigid night is in store tonight, with lows
likely occurring this evening or early overnight. Southerly winds
pick up overnight, which should lead to rising temperatures late in
the night. While most guidance keeps us dry, the NAM continues to
hint at enough low level lift and moisture present to squeeze out
some very light QPF in the 08-12z window across our northern
counties. Decided to keep PoPs silent, but add in the patchy
freezing drizzle mention for this possibility.
An upper level disturbance will sweep across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, which will lead to a cold front sinking southeast across
the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. While the main zone of
precipitation looks to remain northeast of our cwa, a small chance
for rain or snow may briefly sneak into our far eastern counties
during the evening or overnight. It will also be rather breezy
on Wednesday with wind gusts of at least 20 to 25 mph out of the
southwest.
Colder air funnels back into the region Thursday into Friday as a
surface high moves across the region. Most locations likely will
remain below freezing for highs on Thursday and only in the 30s on
Friday. Southerly flow begins to return by Saturday which should
help boost us into the 40s to near 50.
Late in the weekend southwest flow will develop with an upper
disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley into Monday. Moisture
surges across the region later Sunday through Monday. QPF amounts
remain somewhat in question, but a healthy amount is possible.
Current WPC guidance produces a swath of 1 to 2 inches along and
south of the Ohio River.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024
MVFR status deck will slowly erode this afternoon from west to
east. After a mostly clear evening, a mid cloud deck will move
across the area tonight into tomorrow morning. Light winds today
will pick up out of the south overnight and more so tomorrow.
LLWS appears to be a concern later tonight into the morning as
winds increase to 45kts at 2kft. Initially surface winds should
remain around 10 kts or less until 14-15z. Guidance differs on
the extent of mixing tomorrow with gusts ranging anywhere from
20 to 30 kts. For now a middle ground approach around 25 kts
seems the most likely.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 1:37 PM CST---------------
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