MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 11:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...267
FXUS64 KMOB 290542
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1142 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
VFR conditions should generally prevail through the period. A band
of light showers is expected to pass across the area during the
early morning hours. A brief reduction in visibility to MVFR is
possible with this activity, but most areas should remain VFR.
Gusty northerly winds will continue through the period, with gusts
approaching 20-25 knots, especially during the day on Friday. /96
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
VFR conditions are generally expected throughout the TAF cycle in
the wake of the cold front. A band of light to moderate rain is
expected to develop across the coastal counties overnight and
persist through the morning hours. Ceilings are forecast to remain
VFR, however, brief periods of MVFR visibilities could accompany
the rain. Skies will clear once the rain slides out of the area in
the mid to late morning hours. Gusty northerly winds are expected
through the period with gusts to 20-25 knots. 07/mb
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 301 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
The cold front is now pushing south of the coast as of early this
afternoon. Rain chances have come to an end for the time being.
However, rain chances will return to the coastal counties prior to
sunrise tomorrow as another shortwave approaches from the north and
west and rounds the base of the longwave trough. Mid and upper level
forcing will sufficiently increase with this feature to result in a
chance of light to moderate rain from roughly 3am to 9am Friday.
Overall rain totals will be light, but some areas closer to the
immediate coast could receive a tenth to quarter of an inch. Rain
will quickly push east of the area by mid Friday morning with
clearing skies expected by afternoon.
Cold air advection hasn't been overly strong immediately in the wake
of the front, so while dewpoints quickly lowered, the scattering of
clouds has allowed the sun to help level off the near term temp
drop. Stronger cold air advection will develop this evening,
however, and will result in lows dropping into the upper 30s far
inland to mid to upper 40s along the coast. Friday will not make it
out of the 50s with the exception being at the beaches which may get
to 60 degrees. The cold surface high will settle over the TN River
Valley Friday night, setting the stage for a cold night. Guidance
indicates that most areas north of the I-10 corridor will drop to
near or below freezing by Saturday morning. The only fly in the
ointment is the potential for high level cloud cover to stream in
from the west. It's a bit uncertain on if it will be extensive
enough to impact temperatures. For now, went a few degrees above the
consensus MOS guidance. Even with that, there is the potential for a
freeze over much of the inland forecast area. Given this, we have
issued a Freeze Watch for late Friday night/early Saturday morning.
34/JFB
SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMs...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
A pair of upper level shortwaves move through a mean upper trough over
the eastern Conus through the period. With a dry airmass over the
Southeast in the wake of Turkey Day's system, the biggest item to
deal with is a fluctuation in temperatures. General northerly flow
will help to keep temperatures below seasonal norms over most of the
forecast area. Saturday's high temperatures in the low 50s well
inland to around 60 along the coast rises to the upper 50s to low
60s on Sunday. A passing shortwave will move a reinforcing front
south over the Southeast Sunday/Sunday night, with high temperatures
dropping back into the low 50s to near 60 on Monday. Another
shortwave system passing mid week shifts low level flow back to
onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday, with showers approaching from
the west and high temperatures ranging from around 60 to the mid 60s
for Wednesday. For Thursday, high temperatures in the mid 60s to
around 70s, with isolated to scattered rainshowers expected.
Looking at low temperatures, freezing temperatures return to the
forecast area, ranging from the upper 20s well north of Highway 84
to upper 30s south of Interstate 10 Saturday night. The freezing
line for both nights runs from New Augusta to south of Crestview. A
Freeze Watch/Warning may be needed for portions of the forecast area
Saturday night. How a far south is a bit hard to pin down at this
time, but will continue to monitor as the weekend approaches. Low
temperatures moderate slowly upward Sunday and Monday nights with a
more significant jump into the mid 30s to low 40s for Tuesday night.
Increasing moisture levels will bring a more significant rise in low
temperatures, with low temperatures around 40 expected north of
Highway 84 to around 50 south of I-10.
With the northerly flow through the Extended, the risk of dangerous
rip currents is expected to be low through the weekend into the
coming week.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
Moderate to strong offshore flow will develop tonight in the wake of
a cold front. These strong winds will persist through Friday night.
Seas will build to 3 to 7 feet over the open Gulf waters, highest
beyond 20nm. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 6pm this
evening through early Saturday morning. Winds will diminish some
over the weekend, with a light to moderate northeast flow persisting
through early next week. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 44 57 33 58 36 63 34 59 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 48 59 38 59 41 63 40 59 / 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 49 62 41 61 44 65 42 61 / 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 43 56 30 57 28 60 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 40 54 29 56 28 60 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 40 54 30 53 27 57 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 45 60 31 60 29 64 30 61 / 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
ALZ051>060-261-262.
FL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
FLZ201-203-205.
MS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 11:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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