BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 7:05 AM EST155
FXUS61 KBOX 011205
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
705 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Continued risk for ocean-effect clouds and showers towards the
islands today. Otherwise, mainly dry with below normal
temperatures through midweek. Another cold frontal system moves
through Wednesday night into Thursday and could bring some rain
or light snow accumulations. Continued below normal temperatures
to round out this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies cleared out this morning, but expect more clouds will
develop later today. No significant changes to the ongoing
forecast but did tweak temperatures to reflect observed trends.
Winds become gusty by mid-late morning.
Previous Discussion...
Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Yet another day where southern New
England is stuck between a low pressure over eastern Canada and
a high pressure well to our south. There are some subtle
differences. For one, the pressure gradient is not quite as
strong, meaning lower wind speeds today.
Dry air will continue to keep precipitation chances at bay
across most of our region, but another shortwave rounding the
base of the mid-level trough brings increasing clouds later
today. The exception to the dry forecast will be for Martha's
Vineyard, Nantucket and perhaps Cape Cod, where once again
ocean-effect rain/snow showers will be possible.
A little cooler today with below normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Mainly clear skies and diminishing wind tonight will set the
stage for a pretty cold night. Expecting below normal low
temperatures in the teens and 20s. Plenty of sunshine Monday.
Despite a WNW wind, high temperatures should climb back into
the 30s for most locations, which is 5-10 degrees below normal
for early December.
Dry weather persists for most. Still a chance for ocean-effect
showers towards the islands. Once winds shift more WNW to NW
late tonight into Monday, the focus of these showers should be
pushed farther south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
*Mainly dry and below normal temps through Wednesday.
*Confidence continues to grow in light snow accumulations
Wednesday night into Thursday.
*Arctic airmass brings even colder temps Friday into next
weekend.
The upper level closed low begins to break down on Tuesday into
Wednesday, but continued NW flow will keep temperatures below
normal through Wednesday. High temperatures both Tuesday and
Wednesday range from the low 30s in the high terrain to the low
40s on the coastal plain. Low temperatures will drop into the
mid-teens to low 20s across the region. With ocean temps still
in the 50s, there could be some ocean effect rain/snow showers
both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Northern stream trough and accompanying cold front exits the
Great Lakes Wednesday night and slides down into SNE. Most of
the energy with this system looks to stay in northern New
England, closer to the 500mb closed low. Given the origins of
this system are from a dry continental air mass, PWATS are
marginal, only around 0.5 inches. It will likely be cold enough
for precip to fall as snow or a rain/snow mix all the way to the
coast, but snow totals continue to look light at this time. The
LREF grand ensemble shows high probabilities of 60-80% for
1 inch of snow across the interior, dropping to 20-40% along
the coastal plain. LREF probabilities for 3 inches of snow are
between 10-30%, mainly confined to the high terrain.
Strong cold air advection follows behind the cold front on
Thursday, setting up temperatures to be some of the lowest we
have been thus far this season. Overnight temps Friday through
the weekend could drop into the low teens to even single digits.
NBM shows low probabilities of 10-40% for low temperatures in
the single digits across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday: High confidence.
VFR, though there could be continued ocean-effect clouds at
borderline VFR/MVFR levels at ACK. Can't rule out a few brief ocean
effect rain/snow showers today into Monday at ACK. Low chance
for MVFR/IFR CIGS towards the Berkshires. WSW winds today with
gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon for the coastal terminals.
Winds turn WNW late tonight into Monday and become less gusty.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHSN,
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Gusty W winds up to 25 kt continue across the waters today.
Rough seas linger across the southern outer coastal waters into
tonight, before finally subsiding below 5 feet. Small Craft
Advisories continue into tonight.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of snow showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers.
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft. Rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ254-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Belk/KP
MARINE...Belk/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 7:05 AM EST----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
