LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 11:13 PM CST ...New AVIATION...559
FXUS64 KLIX 210513
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1113 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
The surface front is moving through SELA this afternoon, as seen in
decreasing Td. Deep SELA has Td of 70+ while behind the front values
are in the mid 60s. This is the welcomed cooler, drier fall air
we've been waiting for for so long. A downside is that the pressure
gradient moving in is driving north winds of 15mph with higher gusts
and even greater winds over the waters around 20kts (hence the Small
Craft Advisory we have issued). We are behind the trough that
brought rain earlier in the week and ahead of an H5 ridge of high
pressure to the west over the Mountain West and moving into the
plains. The H5 northwest flow is what's bringing the cool, dry air.
This morning's upper air data showed we had a PW around 0.45 which
is in the lower quartile for this day. Winds will begin to drop
tonight as the front moves on through the area and the pressure
gradient weakens. Tonight we are looking at low temperatures in
the upper 30s in our SWMS counties and mid 40s elsewhere. We can
expect a cooling trend through the weekend (more on this in the
LONG TERM section), with clear and dry conditions at least through
the weekend. Ran T grids with the NBM50 with some subtle tweaks
especially to account for a bit of cold air drainage in a couple
the river basins. /Schlotz/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Into the middle weekend, broad CAA accompanies the northwest flow
with lows bottoming out Saturday night in the mid 30s to low 40s.
As the H5 ridge axis moves on to our east we see a rebound in
overnight low temperatures back up to around 60 by midweek. The
surface high pressure moves east early to mid next week bringing
winds and moisture out of the Gulf and leaves us looking at
increasing rain chances early to mid week. /Schlotz/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
generally be light through the remainder of the night, with the
exception of KNEW where 10-15 kt winds persist as a result of
cold air advection across the relatively warm lake waters. After
sunrise, expect winds to come up a bit (except at KNEW) but won't
get much above 10 kts as the pressure gradient relaxes with high
pressure settling into the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Strong winds continue out of the north through tomorrow morning.
leaving the Small Craft Advisory through 9am Thursday. At this
time it looks like winds will be just below borderline Thursday,
but may pick back up Friday. Into the weekend, the intensity does
drop off more toward light to moderate as the direction shifts to
predominantly southerly. /Schlotz/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 38 64 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 43 68 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 41 66 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 50 65 48 64 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 43 65 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 42 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 11:13 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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