ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 7:21 AM EST037
FXUS61 KILN 011221
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
721 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region
today into tonight. A few flurries will be possible on Monday as
a weak upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will remain below normal through much of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Best returns on radar remain across our far southern areas with
some very light returns extending up to along the Ohio River.
Pcpn should gradually taper off from the northwest through mid
morning as a weak embedded mid level short wave rotates off to
our east. Any additional accumulations will be light, but with
air temperatures below freezing and road temperatures near
freezing, some slick spots will remain possible across our far
southern areas. Will hang on to the Winter Weather Advisory for
now.
Otherwise expect skies to become partly cloudy through late
morning and into this afternoon. Temperatures will remain
seasonably cold with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to
the mid 30s in the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A broad upper level trough will remain in place across the Great
Lakes and eastern CONUS through Monday. An embedded mid level
short wave will drop down the back side of the trough through
the day on Monday. While the better moisture and pcpn chances
will remain off to our southwest through the day, it will tough
to rule out a few flurries across our area through the
afternoon, especially across our southwestern areas.
Below normal temperatures will continue with lows tonight in
the teens and highs on Monday in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday night, the longwave trough axis shifts east of the region
with a shortwave at the base of the trough moving through the Mid-
Atlantic. After a brief warm up Wednesday, another trough will
descend into the Great Lakes, ushering in the next wave of below
normal temperatures through the rest of the work week and into the
first half of the weekend.
Precipitation chances gradually increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a deepening trough and strengthening surface low
results in strong 850 mb southwesterly flow. Despite the strong flow
and favorable isentropic ascent/theta-e advection, the lack of
sufficient moisture and large scale forcing limits the ability for
more widespread precipitation to form. QPF amounts continue to trend
fairly low with no more than a few hundredths across the area. If
any precipitation is able to form Wednesday morning, it may
initially take the form of snow before switching over to rain as the
boundary layer warms. In a less saturated environment, strong low-
level winds will efficiently mix down to the surface, presenting an
opportunity (30-50%) for wind gusts greater than 30 mph Wednesday
afternoon area wide. Strong wind gusts in a similar range remain in
the forecast Wednesday into Thursday morning across the north (I-70
corridor and north).
The warm up on Wednesday still appears short-lived as another surge
of cold air moves in for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Confidence
in the temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday have increased
within the ensemble guidance, but some uncertainty remains for
Saturday. There are some initial indications that another trough
will descend into the Midwest during the weekend, perhaps given an
opportunity for another period of weak ridging Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Areas of light snow will continue to slide off to the E, with
dry conditions expected for the local sites through the TAF
period. MVFR cigs are also sliding off to the E, with some mid
clouds from time-to-time through the daytime hours, particularly
for srn sites. As such, VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. Light WNW flow will be maintained at 10kts or less.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts at or above 25 kt are possible Wednesday and then
again on Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...KC/JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 7:21 AM EST---------------
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