PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 1:03 PM CST920
FXUS63 KPAH 291903
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
103 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold conditions hold through Tuesday with temperatures well
below seasonal norms.
- Light snow is forecast over the northern half of the Quad
State Saturday afternoon and evening. 1 to 2 inches in a
narrow band is the current forecast...but isolated higher
totals north of I-64 are possible.
- Temperatures will moderate closer to seasonal norms by
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
The trend today is approaching Advisory criteria for some of
our northern-most counties, with respect to snow amounts tmrw. A
few problematic features suggest holding off on headlines, the
main one being our sustained southerly component to the wind in
the low levels. However, it just might be offset with the slight
uptick in QPF. The best chance of accumulating snow is just to
our north, but along and north of I-64 in southern IL, there is
a signal for upwards to 2" and we have that in the grids. A few
localities nearest the CWA border might push 3" if max of max
amounts are realized, but we suspect some of the upward totals
will be buffered down via melting on fall and on ground contact,
with best pops in the afternoon with temps in the mid 30s and
ground temps in the upper 30s or better. The accumulating
portion of the event s/b mainly afternoon-early evening, and
impacts during that time we think will be minimal.
Even though the event is winding down Saturday night,
temperatures drop markedly with everyone sub freezing after
midnight. Another tenth of an inch or two after midnight in our
far northeast might pose as much or more of a problem than an
inch during the afternoon, so we'll go ahead and issue an SPS
for both the accumulating snow chance and the sub freezing
night-time temperatures for the entirety of the northern
portions anticipated to get a little accumulation.
Beyond that, there is little else significant in the forecast.
After a cold weekend and start to the new week, we moderate back
toward climo by mid week...when small rain chances return to the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
Not much is offered until the back end of the forecast, with
Visual Flight Rules til then. Clouds do increase and lower with
time, with mid-high level VFR CIGS coming into play by
daybreak. A clipper system will eventually bring restricted
bases with snow chances tmrw afternoon-evening, mainly north,
and some of these lower bases might start to sneak into the KMVN
forecast just prior to the 18Z expiration time; included that
with small prob -SN chances for the last 2 hours of its
forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 1:03 PM CST---------------
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