CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 12:43 PM EST901
FXUS61 KCLE 261743
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1243 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the south tonight into Wednesday.
Low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley south of the
area Wednesday night through Thursday. Colder heading into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12:45 PM Update: Starting to see some more notable clearing
across the area, with the back edge to the clouds moving in
from the west and with clouds east of the back edge over our
area starting to scatter out.
Previous Discussion... Cold front clearing the CWA this early
morning, taking the bulk of the synoptically forced rain with
it, replaced briefly by some low- POP lake effect rain showers
in Erie County PA. Temperatures to be knocked back primarily
into the lower 40s across the region today with not much
variability. Winds gusting behind the front 25-30mph in yet
another windy system experienced this Fall. Not much of a
diurnal trend to occur today with very little afternoon recovery
after the morning cold air advection. Upper level flow becomes
zonal quickly with the trough axis exit. surface high pressure
influences from the south move in, but will get periods of weak
PVA in the 500mb flow that could force isolated POPs Wednesday.
In the mean time, the next upper trough axis kicks out of the
Rockies with southern high plains cyclogenesis that will track
rapidly into the Ohio Valley. Axis of precipitation will form
along the developing baroclinic zone to the southwest of the
CWA. Expect the precipitation shield in the southwestern
portions of the CWA by 00Z Thursday and the transition into the
short term forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system will develop and move through the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys on Wednesday night into Thursday. A
precipitation shield should extend north into the region for the
start of the period on Wednesday night. Any precipitation should
start as all rain with marginal temperatures across the region.
There could be some room for some dynamic cooling through the night
into Thursday, allowing for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the
rain. However, with surface temperatures well above freezing, do not
expect much impact from any snow that mixes in for Thanksgiving Day
travel. The low will depart to the east on Thursday and pull a cold
front across the area on Thursday night. A colder air mass will then
start to settle in across the region and allow for the lake effect
machine to fire up for Friday. Temperatures will cool significantly
where high temperatures are likely to remain below freezing on
Friday. The main question for any lake effect snow will be the final
fetch across Lake Erie. A due west flow would favor Erie County PA
for lake effect. However, with these single band setups, once the
band gets going, its own environment will settle in and just the
slightest of backed flow will allow for the band to sit just
offshore of Erie PA and move into western New York, which seems like
the most likely solution at this time. With that, will reflect some
high PoPs in the snow belt and will continue the lake effect snow
messaging in the HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term forecast theme remains the same - sustained cold and
lake effect snow. Below normal temperatures will be expected through
the weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Cold flow off Lake Erie will continue to be supportive of
a lake effect snow environment. The main question remains if snow
will be favored into western NY vs. NW PA and NE OH. If the snow is
offshore of Erie PA on Saturday, an upper level shortwave will move
through the region on Sunday and should allow for snow to push
inland into the forecast area. Therefore, there is some confidence
in possible headline level snowfall for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Still a mix of VFR and MVFR at 18z, with all sites expected to
continue to trend to VFR through the afternoon as high pressure
and drier air building in leads to clouds continue to slowly
rise and scatter out. High clouds will start streaming in
tonight, but expect ceilings to remain well-above even 5000 feet
through the end of the TAF period.
West-southwest winds 12 to 18 knots with gusts 20 to 30 knots
early this afternoon will generally ease to 3 to 8 knots
tonight, though ERI will stay a bit windier. West-southwest
winds remain relatively light Wednesday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain and/or snow Wednesday night
through Thursday and with a transition to lake effect snow
Thursday night through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Deepening low pressure moving across Lake Huron this morning will
extend a cold front across the lake over the next several hours.
Behind the front, winds are expected to increase today with the
strengthening pressure gradient and will maintain the Gale Warning
and Small Craft Advisory headlines for the lake through tonight and
into Wednesday. High pressure will build from the south for
Wednesday and allow for backed flow and decreasing winds. A low
pressure system will develop over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on
Wednesday night into Thursday and will move east through the region
and allow for another cold front to cross the lake. There will be a
period of stronger northerly winds on Thursday as these features
pass the region by. For Friday and into the weekend, a lake effect
snow regime will be in place with efficient lake effect snow bands
and increased westerly winds across Lake Erie. These winds will
require at least a Small Craft Advisory headline with strong winds
and increasing waves.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ146>148.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ149-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 12:43 PM EST---------------
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