JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 2:37 PM EST541
FXUS63 KJKL 241937
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
237 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder temperatures will return today and Monday before rain
arrives with our next cold front Monday afternoon through
Monday night.
- Another round of more significant rain is possible late in the
week, centered around the Thanksgiving holiday. Rain may
transition to a wintry mix or light snow Thursday night into Friday
before ending.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
Temperatures have been slower to warm this morning than previously
forecast. With the last fog in the upper reaches of the Cumberland
Valley showing signs of dissipating and high clouds aloft thinning,
still expect temperatures to warm rapidly through early afternoon
reaching the upper 50 to lower 60s in most locations.
UPDATE Issued at 711 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
Several locations dipped a few degrees below their forecast low
this morning. The only significant change was to update hourly
temperatures using the latest observed conditions as the
initialization to the forecast. As this does not impact the
forecast, text product updates are not needed. However, the edits
have been saved and uploaded to the NDFD database.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
Eastern Kentucky will reside on the southern periphery of west-
northwesterly flow aloft today, with low-amplitude ridging
building across the state tonight, followed by increasing west-
southwest flow as the next upper trough and surface cold front
approach from the west Monday. By early Monday evening, a cold
front is progged to be from near Detroit to Paducah to Memphis,
moving east toward eastern Kentucky.
Warm advection continues to increase across the area today while
low-level thicknesses increase and drier mid-level air moves into
the region. All of this supports seeing a lot more sun today
compared to previous days, along with warmer conditions with highs
rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s southwest.
Low-level southwest winds continue to strengthen and impinge on
eastern Kentucky from the west. With strengthening warm advection
above a nighttime inversion and little in the way of cloud cover,
significant ridge-valley splits in temperatures are expected with
lows in the lower 40s on ridges while coldest valley temperatures
could dip to the lower 30s, or perhaps even a few upper 20s in
the coldest spots. Cloud cover will begin to rapidly increase from
west to east across the area toward dawn.
Increasing cloud cover is expected Monday under a strong warm
advection regime, with isolated to scattered rain showers by mid-
afternoon increasing to numerous showers by late afternoon and
early evening Monday. Despite the cloud cover, the strong warm
advection will allow for highs to reach the lower to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
The active pattern rolls on into the extended. The period does begin
with the break in the weather. This as surface high pressure builds
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. However, quasi-zonal
flow aloft will move this across the area at a good pace. This will
keep it dry until later on Wednesday. Warm air advection does kick
in on Wednesday, with highs pushing back into the 50s and even upper
50s in some cases, but with increasing clouds through the day.
By the time we get to Wednesday night, we will see another upper
level wave push into the Middle Mississippi River Valley. This
feature will eventually help generate another surface low that will
generally track some where within Ohio and Tennessee Valley. However,
when diving more into the ensembles the variability within where
and how deep this low gets is quite different. The depth of this low
is likely tied to the jet stream structures at play and therefore
will have to be resolved more in later updates of the guidance. This
leads to many different surface reflections and therefore lower
predictability on specifics at this time. Either way, there is
enough to keep the PoPs in the categorical range Wednesday night, as
most outputs suggest the potential for rain showers to overspread
the region. This as the probability of greater than a quarter of an
inch of rain in a 12 hours period from Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning is around 60 percent.
Again the amount of left over moisture and lift that is in play on
Thursday is quite uncertain, with all the previous mentioned
features still at play. Given the faster and slower solutions all in
play in this case. That said, there remains a 40-50 percent chance
of seeing around a tenth of inch of precipitation on Thursday. The
speed of this system will play a role moving into Thursday night
into Friday, as well with colder air arriving. This will eventually
lead to a mix with or changing over to snow Thursday night into
Friday. We will also see a more northwest flow pattern develop in
the wake of this low pressure and this would allow parts of the Ohio
Valley to see some moisture from the Great Lakes come into play. The
NBM data combined with the overall trends seems to be a little over
done on snow potential when looking at the overall snowfall within
the dataset itself. The big news here is this could cause some
travel impacts for Thanksgiving even if we are just talking rainfall.
In the wake of this system, longer range guidance and
teleconnections point to the potential for a much colder pattern to
develop across the Ohio Valley. This could bring some of the coldest
air so far this season by next weekend into early next week. There
is also signal for additional fast moving waves to progress across
the Ohio Valley and this could bring in additional chances of wintry
weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
VFR conditions were observed at TAF issuance. High-level cloud
cover will drift across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and most
of tonight. A low cloud deck moves in from the west late tonight
and Monday morning ahead of cold front, likely bringing MVFR
ceilings. LLWS will also develop overnight as southwesterly low-
level winds increase above the nighttime inversion.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 2:37 PM EST---------------
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