JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 12:27 AM EST471
FXUS63 KJKL 240527
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1227 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder temperatures will return for Sunday into Monday before
rain arrives with our next cold front on Monday and Monday
night.
- Another round of more significant rain is possible late in the
week, centered around the Thanksgiving holiday. Rain may
transition to a wintry mix or light snow Friday before ending.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
Clearing is progressing faster than was forecast in the earlier
evening update, and more adjustments have been made based on
latest obs trends and the new 00Z NAM, with clearing now expected
to make it through the region tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 755 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
The main forecast issue is the progress of clearing tonight.
Clearing should continue to progress northeastward, but the
question is how quickly. Models are not handling it well. Have
updated the sky cover based on latest satellite obs and an
examination of NAM BUFR soundings, but confidence is low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
Low clouds linger this afternoon across eastern Kentucky along
with some patchy drizzle, primarily near and east of the US-23
corridor. Thermometers range in the lower to middle 40s at lower
elevations and generally in the 30s above 2,000 feet. The surface
analysis shows us on the northeastern fringe of high pressure
situated over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. At 925 mb,
weak CAA on west-northwest flow and upslope lifting of a moist
air mass continue to reinforce the gray skies and patchy drizzle.
As the surface high drifts east this evening and overnight, low-
level flow will shift out of the southwest and begin pushing
drier, warmer low-level flow back northward across the Eastern
Kentucky Coalfields. This should cause a slow south-to-north
clearing of the current cloud deck. However, where skies clear,
the lingering low-level moisture and radiational cooling will just
permit more fog and low stratus formation overnight. Temperatures
are expected to range from the mid 30s in the north where the
clouds remain through most/all of the night to the lower 30s in
the south where at least partial clearing occurs. A few upper 20
degree readings cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered valleys
near the Tennessee border.
Once any fog/low stratus dissipates on Sunday, mild southwesterly
flow and mostly sunny skies on the backside of the departing
surface high will lead to a pleasant afternoon with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s northern foothills to the
lower 60s in the broader valleys of the Cumberland and Kentucky
rivers. Temperatures are anticipated to drop off quickly after
sunset Sunday evening, especially in valleys; but a cold front
approaching from the west will lead to increasing cloud cover and
uptick in southwesterly breezes overnight. This should promote low
temperatures being established early in the night before
temperatures rise later in the night. Look for lows ranging from
the mid 30s in eastern sheltered valleys to the mid 40s on thermal
belt ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
An active pattern is still on tap across the country in the
extended portion of the forecast. A strong trough aloft will be
moving out to sea just offshore of northern New England. A second
trough will be moving quickly across the northern CONUS and
through the Great Lakes region to start off. Another large and
powerful system will also be churning its way into the Pacific
Northwest and southwest Canada on Monday. A couple of elongated
ridges will be in place aloft, one over the Eastern Seaboard and
the southeastern CONUS, with another similar ridge in place over
the Rocky Mountains and Desert Southwest. Our first weather maker
will be the Great Lakes/northern CONUS trough, which will race
eastward into New England from Monday through Tuesday. The cold
front extending southward from the upper low will bring widespread
rain to eastern Kentucky late Monday through Monday night. The
last few showers should exit our area by around 6 am Tuesday
morning, as a cold front moves off to our east.
High pressure will then settle over the region for a short while,
and will bring dry and much cooler weather to eastern Kentucky for
the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame. Highs on both of those days
will likely on crack the upper 40s and lower 50s around our area.
The dry pattern will not last long, however, as the once West
Coast trough comes barreling toward the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys late on Wednesday. This system's associated surface
reflection will move into our region as it takes shape over and
exits the Great Plains. This low will strengthen on its way to the
East Coast, and will bring widespread rainfall and blustery
conditions to eastern Kentucky on Wednesday night and Thursday.
This system could also bring widespread rainfall, and perhaps a
bit of snow, to New England and the mid-Atlantic regions as it
moves through. Eastern Kentucky could also see a rain/snow mix, or
even periods of light snow, Thursday night through Friday night,
as the upper low moves off to our east and colder air spills into
the region behind it.
Temperatures during the extended look to be below normal on
average. The only exception looks to Monday, when we could see
daytime maxes in the lower 60s around the area. After that, with a
couple of systems ushering colder air into the region, daily
highs only make it into the upper 40s and lower 50s through
Thursday. After the second large trough passes through Friday and
Saturday, we will see another major cool down. Highs heading into
Thanksgiving weekend might only make it into the upper 30s to
lower 40s across eastern Kentucky. The couple of days after
Thanksgiving could end up feeling and looking quite winter-like
across eastern Kentucky. Nightly lows will also be quite cool at
times, and will drop into the 30s most nights, but we could see
lows in the 20s around the area heading into Thanksgiving weekend.
There are no significant weather hazards to speak of at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
MVFR cigs will continue to diminish from the southwest through
09z, lingering longest at KSYM. Fog is developing from south to
north, generally developing a couple of hours after the clearing
takes place. Satellite shows fog forming across parts of the Upper
Cumberland River Valley, and will likely expand into the Kentucky
River Valley over the next few hours. With confidence in fog
formation low at KSME and KLOZ, will monitor trends and may need
to update to include fog in the TAFs, but for now will leave out
of the 06z TAF package.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 12:27 AM EST---------------
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