JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 23, 6:05 AM EST675
FXUS63 KJKL 231105
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
605 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Any remaining precipitation will taper off this morning.
- Milder temperatures will return over the weekend, and rain is
expected late Monday into early Tuesday.
- Another round of more significant rain is possible late in the
week, centered around the Thanksgiving holiday. Rain may
transition to a wintry mix or light snow Friday before ending.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
Added patchy drizzle to the grids and forecast for much of the
area. This drizzle may be pesky and stick around for much of the
morning before eventually diminishing.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
The large stacked upper low that has brought unsettled weather to
eastern Kentucky the last few days will move away over the next 24
hours, leaving northwest flow aloft in its wake. Light upslope
precipitation and low clouds will thus continue into the daytime
hours along the typically-impacted northwestern-facing higher
terrain along the Virginia border. A weak disturbance will pass
quickly across the region within this upper flow later today, which
will keep at least some cloud cover across the region into tonight,
with the best chances for some partial clearing later today in the
southwest counties. Main concern is how long low clouds linger
across much of the forecast area today, and the current thinking is
generally toward a slower clearing, if any, of the low cloud cover
from the southwest, for much if not all of the daytime hours today.
High pressure crosses the region tonight into Sunday morning, with
increasing warm advection and southwest winds through the day Sunday
ushering in a drier air mass ahead of the next system which will
arrive Monday. With mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies along with
the increasing warm advection, temperatures will rise considerably
over recent days into the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
An active weather pattern looks to unfold across CONUS. By 12Z
Monday morning, a ridge will be departing the east coast, as an
upper level trough over Manitoba will phase with some energy futher
south to create a front that will produce showers across eastern
Kentucky late Monday afternoon into the evening.
Meanwhile a ridge over the Intermountain West will be short lived as
an offshore low will absorb a stream of Pacific moisture to the
south, in an Atmospheric River event, and progress onshore over the
desert southwest. This system will continue to trek eastward. Some
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will get incorporated into the
incoming system. This will create a "slug of moisture" that looks to
work into eastern Kentucky late Wednesday, through Thursday in the
form of rain. Precip continues through Friday, ending Saturday
morning, however model guidance has a large spread in temperatures
beyond Thursday, with timing and low placement still being resolved.
There appears to be potential for mixed precip Friday and Saturday.
Monday will be the warmest day, in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday and
Wednesday highs will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The
NBM 1D viewer is showing a 12 degree spread in potential highs for
Thursday ranging anywhere from low 40s to mid 50s. Timing of a
frontal passage can be one of several factors in producing this type
of uncertainty. Heading into the end of next week the generally
temperature trend continues to fall, with highs Friday in the low to
mid 40s, and in the upper 30s to low 40s on Saturday.
Lows will generally trend colder as well, with lows Monday night
likely in the upper 30s to low 40s. With partial clearing Tuesday
night post frontal, temperatures will be colder, likely in the upper
20s to low 30s. Low temperatures recover slightly Wednesday and
Thursday nights, in the mid to upper 30s, however with partial
clearing and northwesterly winds behind the midweek system, will aid
in temperatures potentially dropping into the low to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
Conditions range from MVFR to LIFR to begin the period under
continued low clouds and areas of drizzle and light rain. Have
opted to keep at best MVFR/IFR conditions at most if not all TAF
sites for much of the daytime today, generally following the more
pessimistic MET guidance, with cigs gradually rising slowly at
all sites, and with partial clearing commencing late in the period
toward KSME and KLOZ as winds back from west or west-northwesterly
to a more southwesterly direction. West winds will continue on a
diminishing trend through the remainder of the morning, with light
winds becoming more southwesterly later this afternoon through
the remainder of the TAF period. Where any partial clearing can
occur tonight fog is likely to develop, especially in
sheltered river valleys.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 23, 6:05 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
