ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 4:12 AM EST254
FXUS61 KILN 220912
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and chances for precipitation remain in place
today. Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return to
the region for Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds
across the area. Rain chances increase on Monday with the
approach of the next disturbance.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Large elongated mid level low centered over PA to move to the
East Coast today. A strong embedded shortwave pivoting around
this low has pushed south of the Ohio River taking the widespread
with it. Therefore, the winter weather advisory has been
cancelled.
In the broad cyclonic flow weak forcing will continue this
morning, with the potential for a few weak light snow or rain
showers. With weak forcing can not rule out the potential for
patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle. Have not mentioned the
drizzle due to low probability and do not expect impacts due to
warm ground and air temperatures being right around freezing.
Another vort rotated around the backside of the departing low
will result in an increased chance for pcpn this afternoon.
Boundary layer warms up so expect pcpn to become all rain this
afternoon. Low clouds to persist with high temperatures in the
lower and middle 40s.
Northwest winds around 15 mph will gust up to 30 mph at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
With the mid level low off to the east ridging begins to build
into the area overnight. The area begins to dry out with
precipitation chances decrease from west to east late this
evening into the early overnight hours. Temperatures drop to
lows from the mid 30s to near 40.
Northwest flow aloft with surface ridge building into the area
Saturday. Expect considerable cloudiness with some decrease from
the southwest late in the day. High temperatures generally in
the upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will continue to provide fair, mild conditions
through the weekend. By Monday, low pressure will move from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes States. Rain will accompany this
system Monday, with the cold front pushing through the region late
in the day. Cool high pressure will then build into the Ohio Valley
Tuesday and Wednesday offering below normal temperatures.
The next disturbance will arrive into the area heading into
Thursday. At this time, it appears the associated low pressure
system will move across the Kentucky and Tennessee Valleys with
steady rain from Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large elongated mid level low centered over PA to move to the
East Coast today. A strong embedded shortwave pivoting around
this low will push south of the Ohio River overnight. Lingering
snow in the south will come to an end as this forcing shifts
south of the area.
With the snow ending, visibilities will improve, but ceilings
will remain IFR to MVFR. There will also be wind shift
overnight, with winds shifting from the southwest to northwest.
These winds will be around 10 kts overnight and then increase
during the day with some gusts of around 25 knots by afternoon.
There may be a brief period where ceilings break to VFR tomorrow
morning, before MVFR ceilings fill back in for the rest of the
day into the evening. Some IFR ceilings are possible this afternoon
as well. Another shortwave rotating around the low will bring a
chance of rain tomorrow, indicated in the TAFs with a
-SHRA or VCSH.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings will continue through Saturday. MVFR
conditions are possible again Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 4:12 AM EST---------------
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