CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 4:27 AM EST804
FXUS61 KCLE 220927
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
427 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will merge with a
developing surface low off the New England Coast today. A
surface trough will linger across the eastern Great Lakes
through Saturday. High pressure will briefly build into the Ohio
Valley Sunday before another strong low pressure system impacts
the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The round of wintry weather and localized heavy lake effect
snowfall we had during the past 24 hours has come to an end this
morning. As of 4 am, there are still some lingering light snow
showers over NEOH and NWPA but we are not expecting any
additional accumulations or impacts through the rest of the
morning. The trend going forward will be a slightly rise in our
temperatures through the rest of the morning as the low level
flow is shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly. This wind
shift or surface trough is currently near the lakeshore and will
continue to slowly move through northern Ohio through sunrise
this morning. Ironically the northwest low level flow will
advect in a slightly milder airmass and temperatures will
slowly rise into the lower to middle 40s later this morning. As
the temperatures start to slowly rise this morning, any leftover
snow showers will transition to rain showers from north to
south.
A low pressure system will deepen near the New England Coast
later today which will cause our winds to increase today into
tonight. A deep north-northwesterly flow will develop from the
low levels to the mid level of the atmosphere today into
tonight. This setup will bring a moisture rich flow from Lake
Huron and across Lake Erie down into NEOH and NWPA today through
Saturday. The temperature profile will be just a little too warm
to support any wintry precip with this next wave of lake effect
rain showers. We will see that increase in lake effect
rain showers through the rest of the morning and rain chances
will stay on the high side for NEOH and NWPA during the
afternoon through Saturday. There very well could be some bands
of moderate to heavy lake effect rain showers later today and
tonight. It will be cold, blustery and wet Friday and that will
continue tonight into Saturday. Northwest winds will increase 15
to 25 mph today with gusts likely up to 40 mph this afternoon
into the evening. Winds will remain breezy 15 to 20 mph tonight
and decrease to 10 to 15 mph on Saturday. Average QPF for the
snowbelt area of NEOH and NWPA will likely be up to 1.0" to
isolated 1.5" of rainfall through Saturday. Elsewhere like NWOH
into central Ohio, there will be some scattered rain showers
around today and tonight but not as concentrated or heavy as
what is expected near the snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA.
Temperatureswill move much tonight with overnight low temps in
the upper 30s and lower 40s. The temperatures on Saturday will
only climb back into the middle to upper 40s for much of the
area with mostly overcast skies. Some locations in NWOH may
crack 50 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Last wave of the lake effect precipitation, likely rain at this
point, will come to an end as low level warm air advection begins
moving through the CWa and low level winds become more westerly and
then southwesterly by Sunday night. High pressure influences over
the central Appalachians will be short lived before tracking to the
coast, and the next upper level trough ejects out of the
intermountains west into the plains region. Surface low pressure
develops rapidly over the mid Mississippi Valley, heading
northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. The short term period
ends prior to a sharp cold front, but a significant and brief warm
up can be expected. Mid 40s to lower 50s Sunday become mid to upper
50s Monday. Prefrontal precipitation likely Monday with POPs peaking
around the 00Z Tue time frame.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front cuts through Monday night, dropping temperatures back
down for the middle of the week. Brief period of lake effect
precipitation once again Tuesday into Tuesday night. Diurnally
driven precipitation types expected during this period as
temperatures drop below freezing Tuesday night. Flow aloft becomes
zonal Wednesday with a developing low pressure system moving west to
east from the southern plains into the Appalachians. Northern
portion of the precipitation shield pushes into the CWA from the
south with some below zero 850mb temperatures, and will need to
watch this system for changing precipitation types as well. Overall,
the trend in the extended is back into a chillier pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The overall expectations for aviation weather will be variable
flight categories for the rest of the overnight through the
morning hour due to scattered lake effect snow showers.
Conditions vary from VFR ceilings across NWOH to low end MVFR as
well as brief IFR with the heavier pockets of lake effect. The
lake effect snow showers will be impacting CLE, ERI, and YNG
through the early morning with lower end MVFR ceilings and
visibility reductions between 2sm and 5sm with passing snow
showers. The trend going forward should be a decrease in the
lake effect snow showers by 12z. By late this morning there will
be a transition to lake effect rain showers with localized
bands of moderate showers developing across NEOH and NWPA. The
rain showers will mainly impact CLE, CAK, MFD, YNG, and ERI
today into this evening with low end MVFR ceilings dropping to
IFR this afternoon through the end of the TAF period. Conditions
for TOL and FDY will be a little better later today into the
evening with less potential for rain showers across far NWOH but
ceilings will remain MVFR through most of this TAF period. Winds
are starting off early this morning from the west-southwest 5 to
12 knots. There will be a wind shift from the northwest
between 12z and 15z this morning and becoming gusty. Winds will
increase 12 to 18 knots with gusts likely up to 35 knots by late
morning through the early evening. Winds will relax some after
00z but remain between 8 and 14 knot through the late evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Saturday with scattered
lake effect rain showers mainly impacting the snowbelt area of
NEOH and NWPA. Gusty winds up to 30 knots from the West are
expected on Saturday. Another storm system early next week may
bring non-VFR conditions late Monday through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale Watch in effect for the central basin as northwest winds will
be on the increase to around 30kts by late Friday with wave heights
pushing 10ft. Winds not quite as intense in the western and eastern
basins with Small Craft Advisories. Winds then ease to 15-20kts
Saturday with wave heights gradually decreasing before becoming
southwesterly Sunday 10-15kts into Monday. Strong cold front tracks
across the lake late Monday into Monday night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ143.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
LEZ144>147.
Gale Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through late tonight
for LEZ144>147-164>167.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 4:27 AM EST---------------
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