CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 28, 10:07 PM EDT820
FXUS61 KCLE 290207
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1007 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front will move southeast through the area overnight
as a weak area of low pressure lingers across the Upper Ohio Valley
through Wednesday. High pressure will then build across the Great
Lakes on Thursday and persist into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
10:00 PM Update:
A few showers and storms from Marion to Holmes County, otherwise the
area is generally dry. Isolated to widely-scattered showers are
spreading into Northwest OH and western Lake Erie. A more organized band
of showers and storms ahead of a vort max and weak surface low will
spread into the I-75 corridor around or just after midnight. As the vort
max and surface low move east-southeast expect this area of showers and
thunder to pinwheel across most of the area through early Wednesday
afternoon, though far Northeast OH into Northwest PA may largely stay
north of this batch of showers and thunder. As we get into the afternoon
coverage of showers and storms should decrease from north-northwest to
south-southeast as the vort max and surface low begin to exit, though as
this occurs any sunshine will result in destabilization, which could
allow additional pop-up showers and storms to re-develop outside of a
lake shadow immediately south of Lake Erie in the afternoon. As we get
towards sunset Wednesday we should quickly dry out. Tweaked POPs a bit
to reflect this thinking though the changes weren't too significant.
With chilly air aloft small hail and gusty winds will remain possible
with some thunderstorms through Wednesday...especially during the
afternoon on Wednesday when low-level lapse rates will be steepest and
instability greatest. The vort max, surface low, fairly strong 0-3km
CAPE and weak shear may support a non-supercellular funnel or two across
our southern counties on Wednesday though no severe weather is expected.
Slow cell motions could allow for locally up to 2" of rain under the
most-persistent downpours / storms later tonight into Wednesday, which
could lead to localized minor flooding concerns.
Previous Discussion:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region
this afternoon, aided by a mid-level shortwave and diurnal heating. The
most persistent updrafts continue to be seen across NW OH into MI where
more favorable instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) is found. Elsewhere,
periodic lightning is possible through the rest of the afternoon, though
the potential will remain more isolated. Small hail will continue to be
possible in any stronger storms through the rest of this afternoon.
Attention tonight then turns to a slightly stronger mid-level trough
which will swing southeast across the Upper Midwest and Lower Great
lakes tonight into Wednesday. At the surface, a weak low pressure
will slowly pivot east along the US-30 corridor, sparking additional
showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon. Precipitation coverage will be higher versus today, with
nearly stationary storm motions at times. Will need to monitor rain
rates, particularly between the I-75/71 corridors with the HREF LPMM
suggesting isolated rain amounts of 2-3 inches possible in the most
persistent rains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet part of the forecast as the upper level trough departs with
Canadian high pressure settling into the Great Lakes. Still a chilly
day without any presence of warm air advection just with the
positioning of the surface high over the CWA through Friday night.
Dry forecast through the entirety of the short term forecast period
and an improvement to the afternoon high temperatures from Thursday
60s to lower 70s into Friday lower to upper 70s, although some
portions of NW PA still may have a little trouble eclipsing the 70F
mark. Plenty of sun Thursday and Friday with some high level clouds
moving in Friday night. Low dewpoints, clear skies, and winds going
calm equate to 40s away from the lake Thursday night. Some upper 30s
possible far eastern portions of the NW PA counties in the valleys.
No frost for now and think temperatures should stay high enough,
but will need to watch this carefully as the valleys could radiate
efficiently. Nights are much shorter this time of year, however, so
that would work against this.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A little more unsettled into the weekend with an upper trough axis
embedded in the zonal flow working its way through the are late
Saturday into Saturday night. Still have diverging solutions going
beyond this time frame, however. Zonal flow should persist through
the period with warm frontal interaction for the end of the weekend
into early next week. Temperatures continue to rise through the
period into the low to mid 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the board this evening with the area in a relative lull in
showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface low will drift in from the
west late tonight and work slowly east-southeast across the general
region through Wednesday afternoon, with a cold front trailing behind
the low. Showers and thunder will be more widespread than today with
this feature, and expect all but ERI to get showers and some thunder at
some point. A somewhat lower risk of TSRA at CLE due to winds turning
off the cooler lake, though still feel showers are likely there. Attempted
to time greatest potential for heavier showers or thunder at the
terminals through TEMPOS and VCTS mentions. Where showers are more
numerous some MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight into Wednesday.
Heavier showers or storms can bring non-VFR vsby. Activity should
gradually exit to the east-southeast late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Some fog is possible at eastern locations tonight and
included brief lower visibility at YNG and ERI. Any dense fog should be
fairly brief and likely not widespread.
West-northwest winds will become rather light tonight and then shift
northerly on Wednesday while increasing to 7 to 14 knots as a weak cold
front works through the area.
Outlook...Non-VFR may return Saturday night into Sunday in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds become northerly tonight 5-10kts, increasing to 10-20kts
behind a cold front Wednesday. While waves become 1-3ft in lower
winds tonight, expecting them to increase to 3-5ft for the western
and central basin Wednesday where another Small Craft Advisory may
be needed. Onshore winds will decrease Wednesday night through
Thursday night as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes, with
wave heights coming down as well during that time frame. Friday,
winds become light and variable with waves less than a foot.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 28, 10:07 PM EDT---------------
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