LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION...673
FXUS64 KLIX 171737
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1137 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
Updating forecast to drop the coastal flood advisory from this
morning. The coastal flood advisory for tonight will continue
unchanged.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
The east coast sfc high is holding strong and will continue to do so
over the next 24 to 36 hours. A cold front will start to develop
over the southern foothills of the Rockies as well. The synoptic
flow between these two will cause a deep fetch to set up in the wind
field. This field will be found from the NW Caribbean through the
entire gulf and into the southern US. Wind speeds over the gulf will
begin to set up today and will eventually be at a constant speed of
around 20-25kt across this fetch length. This part of the discussion
may sound like it belongs in the marine section, but it has a lot to
do with the coastal flood advisory/warnings that will be posted over
the next few days. As this starts to set up today, it simply would
not have the time to bring much higher water levels than what we are
seeing this morning which means that we will stay with a coastal
flood advisory for tonight and since the fetch will be over the
entire northern gulf coast, we will also stretch this advisory out
to include all coastal areas. Once this fetch and wind strength
maximize for a good 12+ hours, it will be fully capable of
bringing even higher water levels to our shorelines. This would
very likely tip us into coastal flood warnings for some coastal
areas for Mon night.
The second mid-upper level high is now developing its centroid
over the gulf and this can be seen very well in sat imagery. This
large deep high is moving east and as its western periphery moves
over the western and central gulf, it will allow the deep tropical
moisture associated with what will be the remnants of Sara to
begin flowing northward. This should start to occur late today or
tonight. This moisture will stream into and ahead of the cold
front that will be progressing toward our area Monday. This should
help some shower activity and maybe a few storms break out during
the day Monday. Rainfall rates and spatial residence will simply
increase the remainder of the day Mon through Mon night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
Tuesday we will see the cold front start to move into the western
portion of our area by late morning to around noon pushing all this
mess east. The heavy rainfall will be ongoing Tue until the front
moves through each location and it should be leaving coastal
Mississippi by sunset Tue. Rainfall totals could show a strong
gradient over the area as timing of this deep moisture reacting with
the front will make all the difference. This should occur over
mainly coastal locations which could see 3 to 5 inches while areas
in the NW sector of the areas see an inch or less. Another
reinforcing front will move in behind this first front at a much
higher speed by early Wed bringing the stronger dry cool air and
higher NW wind speeds with it. If this front can get enough
northerly flow over the entire gulf, it should be able to finally
push water levels lower where the next return flow doesn't cause
coastal flooding, but that is yet to be seen. These water levels are
normally moving lower by the end of October or first part of
November. High pressure will settle in and winds will weaken as we
approach the weekend with overall good weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
Moisture trapped under an inversion near 850 mb will continue to
produce areas of broken clouds between FL025-035 over the next 24
hours. Don't expect to see ceilings much below FL020 until very
close to 00z Tuesday, if that soon. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots
should continue through about mid-morning Monday. As pressure
gradient tightens beyond that point, sustained winds will increase
to 15 to 20 knots at most terminals with occasional gusts above 25
knots. Any significant threat of TSRA is not expected until 00z
Tuesday or later.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
Impacts well ahead of the next front could start as early as this
evening as SErly wind speeds begin to reach advisory criteria. We
will try to make this as efficient as possible since wind speeds
will be higher overnight than during the day. So even as some marine
areas fall below criteria for a few hours during the day, we will
leave the orientation of headlines as is. Most of the sh/ts activity
will begin to move through Monday. The remants of Sara will couple
with a cold front bringing more widespread sh/ts activity as we move
through the day Monday through Monday night and linger into Tue
morning ahead of the cold front that should clear the northern gulf
by Tue evening. NW winds will begin to rise to around 25-30kt on the
back side of the front during the day Wed and remain through Wed
night. Winds and seas will slowly settle through the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 61 80 69 / 0 0 10 90
BTR 84 67 85 72 / 0 0 20 90
ASD 80 65 82 72 / 0 0 20 80
MSY 81 68 83 73 / 0 0 20 90
GPT 77 67 80 70 / 0 0 10 80
PQL 82 64 84 72 / 0 0 10 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
for LAZ058-060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
for MSZ086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
for GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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