ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 1:10 PM EST639
FXUS61 KILN 181810
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY
110 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures will be in place through Tuesday with
widespread shower activity moving in for Monday night into
Tuesday morning. A significant pattern shift on Wednesday
will bring gusty winds and much cooler temperatures along with
some snowfall potential by Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We will continue to see a few sprinkles or light rain showers
across mainly central portions of our area in association with a
weak boundary draped across the area. A few additional rain
showers will be possible across far west and northwest portions
of the area later this afternoon as some mid level energy lifts
northeast across Illinois and Indiana. Mild conditions will
continue today with afternoon highs in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A system will bring widespread rain showers to the region late
Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Any instability is very
limited during this time and therefore decided not to have
thunder in the forecast. Going into the afternoon the
precipitation becomes more scattered in nature. There is some
low end instability, however it is still pretty limited.
Therefore, although thunder cannot be ruled out, decided to keep
out of the afternoon hours on Tuesday as well. Winds will pick
up during the day on Tuesday with some wind gusts around 25 mph
possible.
Temperatures Monday night with southerly flow and increasing
clouds will only drop into the upper 40s to middle 50s therefore
they will be able to rise into the 60s on Tuesday despite
expected rainfall and cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday night will feature a period between weather systems. A cold
front will be exiting our eastern forecast area while another cold
front will be approaching from the west. Lingering showers in the
east will be ending during the evening followed by skies becoming
partly cloudy. Lows will range from the mid 40s west to the lower
50s east.
As has been advertised, a large scale mid level trough and
associated embedded pieces of energy (short waves) will affect the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Initial short
wave energy digging into the base of the trough will bring showers
to the region, mainly along and behind the advancing cold front on
Wednesday. Highs will occur during the first part of the day with
some drop off in temperatures later in the afternoon. Highs will
range from the lower 50s west to the lower 60s east. Winds will
increase as low pressure develops and deepens along the front just
northeast of our area, allowing the surface pressure gradient to
tighten, along with some mixing of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue to forecast wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range with some
potential for gusts over 40 mph. Will continue to mention the wind
threat in the HWO. For Wednesday night into Thursday, low pressure
will continue to deepen to our northeast as the center of a
deepening mid level trough deepens as well. Much colder air at the
surface and aloft will be advected into the region. This colder air
will interact with more embedded short wave energy to bring rain and
snow showers to the region. The highest coverage will be Thursday
afternoon and evening when instability will be the highest (steep
low level lapse rates). After lows in the lower to mid 30s, highs on
Thursday will show little rise into the mid and upper 30s. There
could be some very minor slushy accumulations during the first part
of the day, especially across higher terrain and grassy surfaces.
Thursday afternoon and early evening will feature another period of
gusty winds, which again could exceed 40 mph at times. Will continue
to mention this in the HWO.
For Thursday night into Friday, more short wave energy will rotate
around the back side of the center of the mid level trough, which
will continue the threat for some pcpn, highest in the northeast.
This period will actually see temperatures aloft (850 mb) warm due
to a TROWAL, which will actually keep much of the pcpn in the form
of rain showers. After early lows in the lower to mid 30s, highs on
Friday will rise into the lower 40s. It will be a little gusty, but
not as high as the Wednesday/Thursday period.
The center of the mid level trough will rotate to the northeast
Friday night into Saturday. Still, there may be some additional
short wave energy in the northwest flow that will keep a chance of
showers in the forecast. After lows in the lower to mid 30s, highs
on Saturday will once again only top out in the lower 40s.
High pressure is forecast to briefly build into the region Saturday
night into Sunday, bringing a respite in the pcpn threat. Lows in
the lower 30s will give way to highs in the lower 40s north to the
mid/upper 40s south on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A poorly defined, weak warm front is moving slowly north through
IN and OH today, and has been responsible for low clouds
experienced in many locations. MVFR ceilings still lingered in
some places at TAF issuance, but conditions have been overall
improving, and that trend should continue generally from south
to north into this evening, with VFR conditions arriving
everywhere.
A cold front will approach from the west overnight and on
Tuesday. An area of showers will precede the front, bringing a
period of rain to the region on Tuesday morning. The extent to
which conditions deteriorate with this precip is in question,
with the best estimate at this time being a reduction to MVFR
which will last through 18Z.
Low level flow will increase out of the south southwest ahead of
the cold front overnight. This may lead to a period of low level
wind shear around dawn, mainly over southwestern and western
OH and adjacent portions of KY and IN.
OUTLOOK...Periodic weather systems will bring rain, snow and MVFR/IFR
conditions at times. Winds will increase, with gusts of 20-30 kts
at times Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JKL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 1:10 PM EST---------------
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