PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 10:40 PM CST472
FXUS63 KPAH 170440
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1040 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild late fall temperatures will continue through the weekend
into early next week.
- A slow-moving cold front will push through the region Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, bringing renewed chances
for showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.
- It will turn much colder for the latter half of next week,
with high temperatures only reaching the 40s and 50s and AM
wind chill values in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
Upper-level ridging continues to increase across the region, and
that will yield a warming trend in temperatures and dry
conditions through Sunday and into Monday. High temperatures
will reach the upper 60s on Sunday and the upper 60s to lower
70s on Monday and Tuesday. A deep longwave trough will move
into the Intermountain West early next week, and a surface low
will develop the southern Great Plains and translate northeast
into the Great Lakes region. A surface cold front will approach
the region late Monday and pass eastward across the forecast
area Tuesday into Tuesday night. The best forcing with this
front will be north of the region, so currently only light to
moderate rain and possibly a few thunderstorms are forecast at
this time. Rainfall totals by Tuesday night will mainly be in
the 0.10-0.25" range.
Following the frontal passage, the deep trough over the western
CONUS will settle into the eastern half of the country, bringing
much colder and blustery conditions, as well as additional
light rain chances Wednesday and Thursday from wraparound
moisture. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday will only
reach the upper 40s to lower 50s in most areas. Overnight lows
will still be relatively elevated due to the cloud cover, and
generally look to stay above the freezing mark. The blustery
winds will yield wind chill values in the 20s and 30s during the
morning hours during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
Scattered high cirrus clouds will thicken overnight as some
patchy fog has developed mainly across SEMO. Cannot rule out
some brief vsby reductions at KCGI/KPAH where winds have turned
calm. Winds will remain light & variable.
In the wake of the next storm system, low to mid level clouds
will begin to spread across the region Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. The latest model guidance now keeps most of the
cigs low VFR, but brief MVFR still cannot be ruled out. South
winds between 5-10 kts diminish to 3-5 kts after sunset.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 10:40 PM CST---------------
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