PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 28, 6:24 PM CDT264
FXUS63 KPAH 282324
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
624 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly below normal temperatures, dry conditions, and low
humidity will be the main story through Friday.
- A somewhat unsettled pattern returns this weekend into early
next week with daily rain chances along with a more humid
summer-like airmass.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
The upper level pattern features a longwave trough over the Great
Lakes and ridging across the Rocky Mountains. This places our area
in northwest flow. The trough will slowly churn eastward towards the
East Coast through Friday and the ridge will become centered over us
by late Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, weak vort energy will
translate east across the Plains on Friday and into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Friday Night into Saturday. This feature will
provide our next focus for precipitation. Once this passes, there
may be additional weak energy that passes through our region Sunday
into early next week.
Ensemble guidance seems to be in general agreement that the highest
chance for precip this weekend will be Friday night into Saturday.
However, with the zonal flow in place, any weak ripples passing
through may ignite additional showers and storms Sunday into early
next week. It does appear we become increasingly more humid
(dewpoints back into the upper 60s to low 70s) along with higher
instability by early next week. If enough shear is realized with any
wave passing through, some strong to severe storm potential can't be
ruled out. The CSU MLP depicts a rather broad region of the central
CONUS for potential strong storms both Monday and Tuesday. Whether
this stays largely out of our cwa or not is far too early to
speculate at this juncture.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal through Friday with highs
primarily in the mid 70s to around 80 and lows falling into the 50s.
Thereafter, we warm back up to near and even above normal by late in
the weekend and early next week with highs into the mid 80s and lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. A few mid-level
clouds will pass through. Northwesterly winds will become calm
tonight, then shift to the NNW to N around 7-10 kts Wednesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 28, 6:24 PM CDT---------------
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