CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 7:17 PM EST239
FXUS61 KCLE 160017
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
717 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday before
drifting east of the local area Sunday. A weak cold front will
cross the area Sunday night with a more robust system arriving
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track this evening. Drier air is
starting to thin the clouds in NW Ohio, so we will need to
monitor for fog development. Otherwise, low clouds and drizzle
will remain widespread along and east of about I-71. NW flow
across the lakes combined with abundant low-level moisture will
likely keep this drizzle in place all night. This will prevent a
lot of dense fog this evening into tonight, but there will still
be pockets of visibility around a mile or less just given the
amount of drizzle and a shallow area of high low-level moisture
near the surface. We will monitor visibilities through the
evening.
Original Discussion...
Overall, a quiet but dreary forecast is in store for the near
term period. The surface trough and inversion that have been
producing light lake-enhanced rain/drizzle across the area today
will remain in place through tonight before the surface trough
exits to the east this evening as a ridge continues to build in
from the west and drier air works into the near- surface levels.
This will allow any remaining lake-enhanced drizzle/showers to
taper off by early Saturday morning. However, the inversion will
most likely stick around through much of Saturday, which will
result in persistent and widespread low to mid-level clouds
through the majority of the day. Light winds and persistent
low- level moisture could make conditions favorable for patchy
fog across northwestern Ohio tonight and interior northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday night.
Tonight's lows will be in the lower 40s with highs reaching the
upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday. Partial clearing will
produce slightly chillier lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s
Saturday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front briefly drops southeastward through the CWA late Sunday
night into Monday, driven be an upper level trough axis embedded
within the southern periphery of a closed low aloft over northern
Ontario. This would create low level f-gen for the CWA as the cold
front comes through, and have POPs continuing for the forecast, but
in a higher confidence for the northern/eastern portions of the
area. Regardless, this is a low QPF feature temporarily replaced by
high pressure before the boundary returns as a warm front Monday
night. POPs back on the increase during this period, which is a
precursor to a more robust low pressure system that will move into
the region for the long term in a change in the synoptic pattern.
Temperatures on the mild side for mid November despite the weak
cold front, and have Monday/Tuesday in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still trying to iron out the details of the rapidly deepening upper
level low mid week with the associated surface mid latitude cyclone
and how they will affect our CWA. Higher confidence in a colder
airmass intrusion for the middle to end of the week behind a cold
front, and with an occluded surface system, possibly looking at a
setup with aligned surface/low level winds and lake effect
precipitation. Temperatures will obviously play a key role in
precipitation type and timing if ends up being diurnal transitions.
For now, the Thursday post frontal forecast is for widespread 40s
and near freezing overnight lows Thursday night. If the system
stacks and cuts off the cold air, this would impact things as well.
Again, expect details to materialize, but looks like a chilly
pattern at least for a few days beginning in the extended portion of
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Flight conditions will remain relatively poor through tonight
given low clouds and drizzle. This will especially be the case
over NE Ohio and NW PA. Drier air is starting to thin the clouds
in NW Ohio, so expect mainly MVFR overnight at KTOL, KFDY, and
KMFD. We will need to watch for fog development at these
terminals if skies further clear, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAFs. Farther east, drizzle will likely continue
through the night at KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. This will
maintain low MVFR to occasional IFR cigs and vis. Kept the TAFs
somewhat conservative since there isn't quite as much low-level
moisture as last night, but could see some visibilities below 1
mile at times. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR from
west to east Saturday, but this will take until evening in NE
Ohio and NW PA.
Light N to NW winds overnight will become more easterly
Saturday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in fog Saturday night into Sunday
morning and in showers Sunday night and Monday night through
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore N/NW winds bring 2-4ft waves, just shy of SCA conditions
through tonight, easing Saturday with waves less than a foot into
Saturday night. Winds become offshore, south to southwesterly Sunday
15-20kts and wave heights increasing away from shore. A cold front
comes through late Sunday night into Monday with west winds 10-20kts
and approaching SCA conditions Cleveland eastward, but then quickly
turning southeasterly 10-20kts with the cold front returning and
pushing back through as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Maines
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 7:17 PM EST---------------
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