MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 4:38 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...121
FXUS64 KMOB 141038
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
438 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 437 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Cooler and drier conditions are on the way as a cold front is
currently progressing across the area. A large upper level low is
currently moving across Illinois and lifting into the Great Lakes
driving a surface cold front across the southeastern US. This
front has already made it to I-65 and will likely clear the entire
area during the mid morning hours. In the fronts wake, a
significantly cooler and drier airmass will move in as dewpoints
have already dropped nearly 10 degrees across areas west of I-65.
Lingering showers along and ahead of the front will likely only
persist through the morning before the entire area clearing out by
midday. From that point on expect dry conditions into the
weekend. You will likely not notice the cooler temperatures until
tonight when temperatures drop into the 40s to low 50s. Expect
this to continue into Friday and Friday night as northwesterly
flow on the backside of the upper low continues to drive
continental air southward. The only thing left will be a lingering
HIGH rip current risk across area beaches as swell slowly
subsides. BB/03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 437 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
The area remains dry through the weekend and into early next week.
An upper level ridge builds eastward and moves overhead as we roll
into the weekend with a surface high sliding across much of the
eastern half of the US. Dry air continues to filter into the local
area in this pattern. By early next week, the upper level ridge gets
nudged eastward by a shortwave trough cruising northeast across the
Plains and we start to experience onshore flow on the western side
of the ridge. The surface high eventually slides into the western
Atlantic as a surface low (associated with the ejecting shortwave)
develops and slides across the central portion of the CONUS. This
will allow deep onshore flow to become established by Tuesday ahead
of a cold front trailing behind the surface low. Isolated rain
showers will be possible on Tuesday ahead of the front with the bulk
of the rain accompanying the front Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Temperatures will struggle in the wake of this next front
with highs only topping out in the upper 60s on Wednesday with many
locations (away from the immediate coastline) staying in the 50s all
day on Thursday. Buckle up because low temperatures will plunge into
the 30s and 40s on Wednesday night and Thursday night. Right now, it
looks like all communities should stay above the freezing mark.
Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through at least
Sunday night with a bump to at least MODERATE expected early next
week with the increasing onshore flow. Rip current MOS probabilities
are indicating a HIGH risk is possible by Tuesday at some of the
beaches. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
A moderate to strong southeasterly flow will turn northwesterly
this morning and relax as a cold front passes through the marine
waters. Light to occasionally moderate offshore flow will continue
into Friday in the wake of the cold front before becoming a light
easterly flow for the weekend. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 48 72 47 74 53 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 77 53 72 53 72 58 75 63 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 81 56 73 55 74 59 77 62 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 75 46 71 43 74 46 76 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 72 44 70 42 74 46 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 70 45 68 43 71 45 74 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 81 46 75 44 77 47 79 51 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
ALZ263>266.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until noon CST today for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Advisory until noon CST today for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 4:38 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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