LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 4:26 PM EST935
FXUS63 KLMK 152126
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
426 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry/quiet weather expected over the weekend with a moderation in
temperatures.
* Another system will bring a chance for rain/storms on Tuesday. A
transition to a cooler pattern is expected for mid-late next
week, with increasing confidence in a period of below normal
temperatures late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Afternoon satellite imagery continues to show widespread low stratus
across the region. Culprit here is a temperature inversion aloft
that has trapped residual moisture underneath. Some drier air has
worked into far western KY (mainly west of I-24). However, low
clouds will remain in the region for the remainder of the afternoon
and evening. Temperatures have not moved much today given the
clouds. Afternoon temps were generally in the lower 50s across
southern Indiana and Kentucky. Some upper 50s were noted across far
western KY where clouds had cleared out. Temps this afternoon will
not much higher or fall too much this evening as the clouds will
keep things in a steady state. By late evening, temps are expected
to fall back into the upper 40s.
For the overnight period, clouds look to remain in place across the
region with some build down in ceilings as we go through the night.
If cloud cover remains intact, as forecast, then some light fog/mist
will be possible in some areas. On the other hand, there is still a
low probability that clearing could take place more rapidly. If
this were to occur, the combination of clear skies, light winds, and
saturated soils from previous rainfall would lead to the development
of dense fog. Lows tonight will be in the lower-middle 40s.
For Saturday, upper ridging will continue to build into the region
from the west. Drier air will continue filter into the region and
with daytime heating, we should start to see the low stratus mix out
during the morning hours with partly to mostly sunny skies by mid-
late afternoon. The temperature forecast will be dependent on how
fast we clear out. Typically the models are too aggressive with
clearing, especially when we have temp inversions to mix out.
Therefore, went on the lower side of the guidance envelope here with
highs in the upper 50s. If sufficient clearing does occur on
Saturday, highs could potentially warm into the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Saturday Night through Sunday Night...
Dry weather is expected for the second half of the weekend. We'll
begin the period with upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS and
troughing over the western CONUS. An upper level shortwave trough
and associated sfc low are forecast to lift NE from the northern
Plains toward Ontario. Meanwhile, a developing closed low will
meander eastward over the Desert Southwest and Mexico through Sunday
night.
S/SW return flow develops Sat night and strengthens on Sunday as sfc
high pressure shifts off to the east. The slowing cold front tied to
the low lifting into Canada will likely stall somewhere northwest of
the forecast area Sun-Sun night. There is a very slight chance
(around 10%) for a light shower in southern IN late Sunday night
into early Monday. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated. Saturday
night will be the cooler night with weaker WAA and sfc winds
remaining quite light beneath the nocturnal inversion. Expect Sunday
morning lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will warm
nicely on Sunday with partial cloudiness and stronger low-level SW
flow. Highs should reach the mid 60s in most areas. Lows Sunday
night will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Monday and Tuesday...
The strong upper level wave over the SW is forecast to eject
northeast from the southern Plains to the Upper Mississippi River
Valley Monday through Tuesday. Significant cyclogenesis does look
likely with a favorable coupled upper level jet structure. Deep
moisture and strong lifting associated with this system appears
likely to remain off to the west on Monday. Look for mainly dry
conditions to continue with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to near
70.
As the low occludes late Monday night, the arcing cold front is
forecast to push in from the west. A narrow plume of moisture just
ahead of the boundary will allow for increasing rain chances early
Tuesday morning. Deeper moisture and stronger instability still
appears likely to remain off to our south, while the strongest
forcing will accompany the parent cyclone to our northwest. This may
limit the overall rainfall totals. Weak elevated instability may
still allow for a band of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday morning. QPF totals for this round of rain do not look too
impressive. Tuesday will be breezy and mild with highs near 70
degrees.
Mid-to-late Next Week...
A deep closed low is still forecast to develop over the central to
eastern CONUS during the second half of next week, and timing
remains the main uncertainty. A deepening cyclone is likely to usher
in much cooler air by late Wednesday or Thursday. Ensemble cluster
analysis reveals two main camps, with the ECMWF EPS representing the
slower solution and the GEFS representing a faster solution. The
latest 15.12Z deterministic runs do not necessarily agree with the
majority of ensemble members from the same model. Nevertheless, rain
chances are likely to ramp back up Wednesday into Thursday. Much
cooler air flooding the region Wednesday night or Thursday will drop
temperatures below normal. Temperatures could even briefly become
marginal for a mixed p-type early Thursday. However, the latest data
continues to suggest that near sfc temps may stay warm enough for
mainly a cool rain. Notably windy conditions will be possible as the
low lifts northeast of the region. Expect cloudy, windy, showery
weather late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Low-level moisture trapped beneath a temperature inversion will lead
to a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs this afternoon and into this evening. IFR
vsbys will continue at KLEX for another 1-2 hours before lifting
into the MVFR range. Winds will remain out of the northwest this
afternoon with speeds of 3-5 knots. Tonight, concerned with another
build down in the stratus and we could see a return to low MVFR,
even IFR cigs at the terminals. Clearing looks to take place after
sunrise Saturday (16/14-15Z or so). Winds overnight will shift to
the northeast and then to the east/east-southeast on Saturday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 4:26 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
