JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 3:12 PM EST990
FXUS63 KJKL 142012
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
312 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday, before
trending to near 10 degrees above normal for the first half of
next week.
- Rain return late Monday night into Tuesday.
- A cooler pattern arrives by late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 248 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
We are seeing an upper level low and occluded front continue to
work across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. This has sparked off
additional showers this afternoon, with some breaks leading to
steeper lapse rates. We have not seen much in the way of thunder
given the lack of ice, with more signal showing up in areas mainly
north of I-64. Given this focused the chances of thunder through
the afternoon in these area. The shower activity will subside
through the late afternoon and early evening once we loose the
daytime heating. The forecast soundings including HREF driven data
then transition this to more of a low stratus and drizzle
scenario through the night into Friday morning and with little
spread. This as low level moisture gets stuck underneath an
inversion aloft. Therefore went more pessimistic on cloud cover
through the night.
Friday, an area of high pressure is well forecast to progress
eastward into the Ohio Valley. This should help to dry us out
some but some data indicates that we could see the drizzle
continuing a little longer. However, we will at least keep the
low stratus around through much if not all day, with the
inversion strengthening through the day. Given this once again
kept the sky a little higher through the day than NBM. In light of
this, also lowered afternoon highs just a little, with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 50s.
Friday night, there remains some concern that we keep this stratus
deck into Friday night, with some disagreement showing up in the
CAMs. Also, the inversion will continue to strengthen through the
evening and overnight and this would further push this stratus
downward. Even so, kept some fog in there Friday night because
any clearing could result in river valley fog at a minimum, but
the overall confidence is low. Also, if we don't clear expect
fairly uniform overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
Large scale flow pattern - Two large troughs will be moving off the
coasts of New England and the southeastern CONUS to begin the
period. A large ridge of high pressure will be in place from the
eastern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, across the Great Lakes down to
the Gulf of Mexico, and into the eastern Plains. Another very large
and well developed trough of low pressure is forecast to be moving
east just inland from the west coast and the desert Southwest. A few
rain showers will be exiting our area Friday evening, and should be
gone by around 3Z. After that, the ridge to our west will finally be
free to expand/move to the east, and overspread the eastern third of
the country over the weekend and into the first of the upcoming work
week. Another area of low pressure will be moving our way out of the
desert southwest. This system will move quickly northeast across
the central Plains and into the northern Plains and western Great
Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. The latest runs of the
ECMWF, GFS, and WPC guidance all have the central trough stalling
out somewhere over the northern Plains and intensifying as it spins
in place. This system will push the ridge off to our east, and will
bring widespread rain back to our area Monday night through
Wednesday night, as the trough spins in place to our west. Based on
the latest model data, it appears that conditions Friday night and
Saturday night might support modest ridge valley temperature splits
and areas of valley fog those two nights, especially Saturday night,
as high pressure becomes situated nearly overhead.
Winds will become breezy and gusty toward the end of the period, as
a large trough lingers to our west. Temperatures will near normal to
start things off, in the upper 50s and lower 60s on Saturday, but
should warm into well above normal values in the upper 60s to lower
70s Sunday through Tuesday, as strengthening southerly flow
overspreads the region ahead of the approaching trough. Widespread
clouds and rain will drop temperatures back to below normal values
Wednesday and Wednesday night, as surface cold front moves through
and winds shift to the west and northwest behind it. No weather
hazards are expected in the extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
We are see a combination of IFR and MVFR at most sites this
afternoon. These lower cigs will improve slightly through the
afternoon where most sites should at least get toward the high end
of MVFR. There will also be a few more showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm develop this afternoon. However, post frontal
stratus and even some mist will settle in this evening generally
after 2Z and will lead to at least IFR cigs and possibly lower. An
area of surface high pressure will nose in this evening into
Friday and forecast soundings suggest this stratus deck gets
caught beneath the inversion. Given this expect IFR to MVFR cigs
for much if not all the period as mixing will be limited. The
winds will uptick this afternoon in the 5-10 knot range out of the
south and west especially where we see any breaks in the clouds.
We could also see a few 15-18 knot gusts through the afternoon.
These will diminish this evening and light a variable winds will
settle in.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 3:12 PM EST---------------
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