JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 1:11 PM EST871
FXUS63 KJKL 141811
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
111 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A weather system is bringing widespread showers to eastern
Kentucky early this morning before diminishing later this
afternoon through the evening.
- Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday, before
trending to near 10 degrees above normal for the first half of
next week.
- Rain chances look to return Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
Updated Pops and weather to better match the latest obs and
trends. Outside of this overall minor update. The occluded front
is working across the state. We are seeing another round of
showers push across this afternoon, but coverage has been best
mainly north of I-64. These are likely more driven by the
mid-level closed low working across the Ohio Valley. The thunder
chances for most are decreasing given cloud cover and lack of a
better signal for ice, with most of the colder cloud tops
residing in the northern parts of the CWA.
UPDATE Issued at 1100 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
No big changes needed this update. The latest surface analysis
shows an occluded front bisecting the state this morning. This
will push eastward this afternoon along with the upper low and
potential ignite another round of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm this afternoon. The question is how much clearing do
we see this afternoon and the forecast soundings are showing the
moisture to be quite shallow. However, freezing levels will remain
low leading to steeper lapse rates. Overall thinking the forecast
is on track at this time, with little changes needed for this
update.
UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest radar and CAMs details into the near term
PoPs and Wx grids. The obs and trends for the T/Td grids were
also included with this update. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows a fairly strong area of low pressure
moving into the Ohio Valley to the northwest of Kentucky. This is
pushing a large area of showers and potential thunderstorms
through the area early this morning along and ahead of a lifting
warm front/pre-frontal trough. This is providing some much needed
soaking rains for most of the JKL CWA. Meanwhile, under cloudy
skies, temperatures are fairly uniform in the middle and upper 40s
most places - though low 50s are found over the western
Cumberland Valley in the wake of the warm front. Also, with
generally south winds of 5 to 15 mph, dewpoints vary from the low
50s in the I-75 corridor to the upper 30s in the far east. Most of
the fog overnight has been associated with the showers moving
through.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in very good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast
even though the mid levels are rather dynamic. They all depict a
sharp trough bottoming out through eastern Kentucky later today
with large 5h height falls and a core of mid level energy rolling
above the JKL CWA as it passes by during the late afternoon. In
the wake of this feature, northwest mid level flow will commence
tonight as a building ridge works east into the region tonight and
especially on Friday upstream of the departing trough that
deepens off the Carolina coast. Despite this active pattern in the
short term, the still small spread among the models favored using
the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with
adjustments made primarily to include CAMs details for PoPs and
enhanced thunder chances through this afternoon.
Sensible weather features a day of off and on showers under mostly
cloudy skies and breezy conditions as the winds switch from
southeast to west through early evening. Colder air moving into
eastern Kentucky aloft as the sfc low passes by to the north. This
will bring steeper lapse rates that could be just enough to
generate some thunderstorms - especially if we see some breaks in
the low clouds coincident with diurnal heating. Have beefed up the
NBM thunder chances from late this morning into the afternoon to
account for this. Otherwise, the shower chances will wind down
from west to east through the afternoon as PWs fall and the deeper
moisture exits to the east. Low clouds will then stay around
tonight keeping temperatures uniform amid some CAA on westerly
winds. For Friday we will see clouds likely holding in and
temperatures a notch colder than today with still a small shower
chance around - mainly east.
The changes to the NBM starting point mostly consisted of
adjusting the PoPs and Wx grids per the latest CAMs guidance on
placement and timing into the evening. Temperatures and dewpoints
from the NBM were not changed much through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
Large scale flow pattern - Two large troughs will be moving off the
coasts of New England and the southeastern CONUS to begin the
period. A large ridge of high pressure will be in place from the
eastern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, across the Great Lakes down to
the Gulf of Mexico, and into the eastern Plains. Another very large
and well developed trough of low pressure is forecast to be moving
east just inland from the west coast and the desert Southwest. A few
rain showers will be exiting our area Friday evening, and should be
gone by around 3Z. After that, the ridge to our west will finally be
free to expand/move to the east, and overspread the eastern third of
the country over the weekend and into the first of the upcoming work
week. Another area of low pressure will be moving our way out of the
desert southwest. This system will move quickly northeast across
the central Plains and into the northern Plains and western Great
Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. The latest runs of the
ECMWF, GFS, and WPC guidance all have the central trough stalling
out somewhere over the northern Plains and intensifying as it spins
in place. This system will push the ridge off to our east, and will
bring widespread rain back to our area Monday night through
Wednesday night, as the trough spins in place to our west. Based on
the latest model data, it appears that conditions Friday night and
Saturday night might support modest ridge valley temperature splits
and areas of valley fog those two nights, especially Saturday night,
as high pressure becomes situated nearly overhead.
Winds will become breezy and gusty toward the end of the period, as
a large trough lingers to our west. Temperatures will near normal to
start things off, in the upper 50s and lower 60s on Saturday, but
should warm into well above normal values in the upper 60s to lower
70s Sunday through Tuesday, as strengthening southerly flow
overspreads the region ahead of the approaching trough. Widespread
clouds and rain will drop temperatures back to below normal values
Wednesday and Wednesday night, as surface cold front moves through
and winds shift to the west and northwest behind it. No weather
hazards are expected in the extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
We are see a combination of IFR and MVFR at most sites this
afternoon. These lower cigs will improve slightly through the
afternoon where most sites should at least get toward the high end
of MVFR. There will also be a few more showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm develop this afternoon. However, post frontal
stratus and even some mist will settle in this evening generally
after 2Z and will lead to at least IFR cigs and possibly lower. An
area of surface high pressure will nose in this evening into
Friday and forecast soundings suggest this stratus deck gets
caught beneath the inversion. Given this expect IFR to MVFR cigs
for much if not all the period as mixing will be limited. The
winds will uptick this afternoon in the 5-10 knot range out of the
south and west especially where we see any breaks in the clouds.
We could also see a few 15-18 knot gusts through the afternoon.
These will diminish this evening and light a variable winds will
settle in.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 1:11 PM EST---------------
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