Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1155 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE723
AWUS01 KWNH 132202
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-140400-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
Areas affected...MS River Valley into northern MS, western TN/KY,
southwestern IN
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 132200Z - 140400Z
SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms across the lower MS/OH Valleys
will be capable of 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall rates and localized
totals up to 3 inches through 04Z. Isolated flash flooding may
occur as a result.
DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite and radar imagery showed scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the lower OH and MS Valleys into
portions of central MS/western AL as of 2130Z. Forcing for ascent
included lift ahead of a mid-upper level trough moving east
through the central/southern Plains, with cells near and east of a
low level (925-850 mb) confluence axis located across the lower MS
Valley, which also extended northward into the lower OH Valley
although not as strongly when compared to locations farther south.
Low level warm advection was also contributing to heavier rainfall
across the IN/KY border, located at the leading edge of 50-60 kt
850 mb winds via VAD wind and short term RAP forecast data.
Instability was somewhat limited however, with 500 to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE confined to central MS and elevated CAPE in excess of 500
J/kg in pockets farther north into western KY via 21Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.
Water vapor imagery showed the mid to upper level trough over the
central Plains acquiring a negative tilt which wil continue east
into the overnight. Out ahead, diffluent flow across the lower OH
Valley will aid in ascent with the slow eastward moving axis of
low level confluence likely allowing for repeating/training rounds
of heavy rain which could allow rates to reach into the 1-2 in/hr
range through early overnight.
To the south, across central/northern MS into western TN, locally
higher instability should support greater intensity rainfall with
ascent aided within the right entrance region of a 100-110 kt
upper jet max located east of the advancing upper trough. The axis
of low level confluence located in MS/western TN is expected to
translate slowly but steadily toward the east over the next few
hours which should limit training potential, however, periods of
short-term training will still be possible, including the
potential for more organized cells due to the combination of
greater instability and favorable shear profiles. Rainfall rates
of 1 to 2+ in/hr cannot be ruled out along with isolated areas of
flash flooding through 04Z.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...IND...JAN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 38778598 38258572 37498613 35788696 34348750
32798866 32829016 33219054 34799016 36148939
37438836 38618692
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1155 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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