LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 12:51 PM CST ...New AVIATION...637
FXUS64 KLIX 121851
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1251 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
No fog worries for now as all variables are out of line for even
advection fog. There is still a sfc low existing offshore from the
old remnants of Rafael. This low is still interacting with the
strong ridge over the gulf south causing winds to remain elevated
along the coast and offshore. Some showers will continue to move
inland today with most of the strongest storms staying offshore or
near the coast. This will change Wed as the sfc low begins to move
west then north ahead of a cold front. The shear and deep moisture
provided by the remnants will couple with the front and provide an
environment capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong/severe
storms. This could start early in the day Wed spreading east
thorough the day. All severe weather variables will be on the table
with hail being the lowest risk. Tides will remain lower as we have
moved into a neap tide cycle. But this ends late Wed into Thu and
there will be a timing issue with this as high tide comes late Wed
and this is as we are getting SE winds on the east side of the old
remnants and ahead of the cold front. So there could be one more
short duration of coastal flooding by late Wed.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
The cold front is expected to move through Thu bringing all this to
and end as it should clean the area bringing northerly winds forcing
the water away from the coast as well. High pressure will build in
quick then move east just as quick bringing return flow back from
the gulf by the start of next week. A new cold front will then knock
on our door by mid next week. This is quite a ways out at the moment
but it does seem logical as the stagnant cycle that we have been in
moves to a progressive cycle with more cold fronts moving through.
As far as the tropical parts of the extended models, it is way too
far out to give any credible information on this, but we do
acknowledge models showing this and it is a good fit
climotologically as this is still the time frame for Caribbean
systems. But, as westerlies firmly entrench over the area, it will
becoming increasingly difficult for anything to hold together this
far north or west.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
MVFR and IFR cigs will continue through the afternoon and into the evening
hours for most terminals. Low cigs will begin to improve some late
this evening but there will still be broken to overcast skies
through the forecast. Anywhere that rain is falling vsbys will
fall some mostly into MVFR status but moderate to heavy rain could
drop vsbys down to 2sm. Light isolated showers will still be
possible overnight but we should see an increase in convection
late tomorrow morning. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024
The remnants of Rafael is still causing issues for the marine areas
or at least the interaction between the remnant low and the strong
ridge over the gulf south. There will remain the possibility of
strong or even severe storms over the gulf waters today and tonight.
Winds will move from northerly to SErly by tonight for all waters
and remain in the 20-30kt range. A cold front will then begin to
move through the northern gulf early Thu bringing northerly winds
which will slowly turn easterly by the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 65 76 60 / 30 50 90 80
BTR 80 69 82 65 / 40 50 80 50
ASD 76 69 81 65 / 40 50 80 70
MSY 77 72 82 67 / 50 50 80 70
GPT 75 69 79 67 / 40 30 70 80
PQL 79 69 81 67 / 50 20 50 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ532-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 12:51 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
