LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 3:12 AM EST668
FXUS63 KLMK 140812
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Rain will gradually decrease in coverage this morning, with
lingering scattered showers through mid-afternoon. Otherwise,
cool, cloudy, and breezy conditions are expected.
* Dry Friday through the weekend. Temperatures remaining at or
above normal.
* Shower/storms are likely by Tuesday with a transition to a much
colder pattern for the later half of next week with light wintry
precipitation likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Water vapor imagery shows a tightly-wound upper low spinning across
the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a rich plume of deep-layer moisture
lifting northward on the eastern flank of the low. This fetch of
moisture, along with supportive dynamics, has assisted in bringing
multiple waves of moderate rain showers across central KY and
southern IN over the past 12-18 hours. Drier mid-level air is moving
into western KY at this hour, and this will help to push this last
wave of widespread precipitation off to the east of the area over
the next few hours. At the surface, 1006 mb occluded sfc low is
located over west central IL as of 07Z, with a cold front analyzed
near the Mississippi River and pushing into western KY at this time.
This front should reach our western counties by around sunrise and
is expected to push through the forecast area during the morning and
early afternoon hours.
Later this morning, another wave of isolated to scattered showers
should develop in the vicinity of the cold front. While cooling
temperatures aloft should help to steepen low-level lapse rates and
near-sfc convergence along the cold front will provide a source of
mechanical lifting, saturation will be confined to the 925-700 mb.
These showers should develop across the western FA around 10-11Z,
moving across the area during the late morning and early afternoon
hours before exiting into eastern KY. Precipitation amounts with
these showers are expected to be light, generally up to 1/10". As
the front passes, winds will veer from southerly to westerly, with
breezy conditions expected through the day. Sustained winds of 10-15
mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph are expected.
Even though much of the day today should be dry, low stratus clouds
will make for quite drab weather, with an overcast expected to
remain in place through the day. These low clouds combined with cold
advection this afternoon should limit the diurnal range in
temperatures, with values remaining nearly stationary through much
of the day in the 50s.
Tonight, low clouds are expected to stick around, with temperatures
not falling off too much after sunset. Winds will die down somewhat,
though a persistent northwest breeze of 5-10 mph should continue in
the more well-mixed areas. Lows Friday morning should range from the
mid 40s to around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Friday - Monday...
Slowly progressive upper ridging and high pressure at the surface
look to dominate our weather pattern late week through the weekend,
and even into the first part of next week. The end result for our
sensible weather is high confidence in a dry and mostly pleasant
stretch of late Fall weather.
Friday will be the coolest of the aforementioned days a lingering
low clouds and a light NW surface wind keep the diurnal range pretty
low. Only expecting highs in the 55 to 60 degree range for this day.
Time heights and forecasts soundings do show a decent amount of
trapped 1000-850mb moisture. With models spitting out a few blips of
QPF for Friday morning, can't rule out a few patches of drizzle.
Won't carry any measurable chances at this time, but will make note
of perhaps not completely dry for that time frame.
Saturday and Sunday will most definitely be dry as the center of the
upper ridge and surface high pressure are in control. More sunshine
is expected for Saturday under a neutral advection component, and
then another partly sunny day on Sunday with a return of warm
advection on the western side of the retreating high pressure.
Ultimately, this leads to a warming trend through the weekend with
highs in the upper 50s and low 60s for Saturday, and highs in the
mid and upper 60s for Sunday. Warmer conditions continue into Monday
despite increased cloud cover. Mid to upper 60s look pretty good,
with perhaps a few southern locations touching 70.
Monday Night - Wednesday...
Pretty interesting pattern going from the early to mid week
timeframe. A SW CONUS trough looks to phase with a digging western
CONUS trough, while downstream blocking to our east holds the
progressive pattern up. The end result will be an anomalous closed
low enveloping much of the central CONUS by Wednesday. Over our
area, precipitation chances could begin as early as Monday evening,
but look most likely in the Tuesday timeframe ahead of a cold front.
Temperatures remain mild Tuesday ahead of the front, however cooler
temps back in the mid 50s to around 60 are expected by Wednesday.
Precipitation chances linger into Wednesday as well.
Extended Forecast Discussion...
MUCH COLDER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...
As we head into the extended forecast period, high latitude blocking
is forecast to increase over Greenland while a negative height
anomaly works eastward across the central US and eventually into the
eastern CONUS. Multi-model consensus forecasts a teleconnection
pattern featuring a -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern with the PNA trending from
negative to positive. Confidence on this evolution of this pattern
is well above normal given the good model agreement both in the
deterministic as well as the ensembles. Uncertainty does rear its
head in how quickly this negative height anomaly will translate
east. The GFS and GEFS solutions that the colder pattern will get
here by Thursday, while the Euro and its EPS suggest it will be late
Friday/Saturday before it gets cold.
Internal signal analysis from early November has been quite
remarkable over the last couple of weeks. A strong signal passage
is current indicated around 11/22. This averages out well with the
faster GFS and slower Euro solutions. At the time of this passage,
a cold airmass will be in place to support wintry precipitation
across in the 11/21-11/23 time frame. Looking forward into week two
(week of Thanksgiving), colder than normal temperatures are likely
to continue, though there may be some attempts at moderation. Another
strong signal passage is centered around 11/26 and that could bring
another round of precipitation (likely wintry) to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Another wave of moderate rain showers will move across the region
over the next few hours, with rain becoming more scattered from west
to east after 09Z. In this band of rain showers, VIS should be
predominantly MVFR, though occasional dips to IFR would be possible
in the heaviest rain cores. While all sites except HNB currently
have VFR ceilings, MVFR/IFR CIGs to the west should overspread the
region later this morning, with the lowest ceilings expected just
ahead of the cold front passing through (14/09-16Z). As rain becomes
more showery/spotty later this morning, prevailing VIS should
improve, though occasional MVFR VIS in rain showers will be possible
through midday, especially at LEX/RGA. As the cold front passes,
winds will shift from S/SE to W. For this afternoon and into this
evening, MVFR ceilings and westerly winds are expected to continue.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BJS/MJ
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 3:12 AM EST---------------
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