ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 3:02 AM EST910
FXUS61 KILN 120802
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
302 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today, with dry
conditions prevailing across the region through Wednesday. The
next system brings rain back into the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Near normal temperatures are expected through the
upcoming week, with drier conditions returning later Friday into
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The mostly clear skies entrenched across the local area will
gradually be replaced by increasing cloud cover moving in from
the N through sunrise. This cloud deck should drift to the SSW
during the morning into mid afternoon before scattering out late
in the day, leading to clearer conditions once again past 21z,
especially for WC OH and central OH (clouds will linger the
longest in the Tri-State/SE IN). But skies will be mostly cloudy
for many locales near/N of the OH Rvr through the first half of
the daytime, which will help keep temps a bit cooler in the
post- frontal environment. Highs should top out in the upper 40s
(N of I-70) to the lower 50s (near/S of the OH Rvr) amidst a
steady light NE breeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions continue through the short term period as
the sfc high drifts further away from the local area, allowing
for LL flow to become more southeasterly by Wednesday. The
approach of a fairly strong/sharp S/W by late Wednesday will
allow for increasing mid/high clouds through the day. However,
the pcpn chances should hold off until just after the conclusion
of the short term period, so expect that most, if not all,
locales remain dry through sunset Wednesday evening.
It'll be another seasonably chilly night tonight amidst mostly
clear skies and light easterly flow, with temps generally
bottoming out in the upper 20s in central/south-central OH to
the mid 30s in the Tri-State. Strengthening southeasterly sfc
flow by Wednesday afternoon will help temps rebound to around 60
degrees by late in the day, despite the thickening mid/high
cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low pressure system and upper level shortwave will be approaching
the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The low will lift a
warm front through the Ohio Valley bringing widespread rainfall
especially before sunrise. Rain coverage may decrease after sunrise
as the low level jet weakens despite the chance for showers
persisting through the day ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain
chances then drop off gradually behind the cold front Thursday
evening into the overnight.
High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the west Friday
through Saturday night bringing cooler temperatures and dry weather.
Rain chances increase once again to start the work week when the
next cold front may move through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly clear skies have evolved locally for the start of the TAF
period, but some borderline MVFR/VFR stratocu will work back in
from the NE toward daybreak and beyond. The CIGs should
generally range between about 2500-3500ft and will scatter out
past 21z as the best coverage continues to drift to the SW. As
such, clearing conditions will evolve from NE to SW late in the
daytime before skies trend mostly clear area-wide toward 00z.
Some cirrus will overspread the region from the SW toward the
end of the period and beyond.
NNE winds around 8-10kts will increase subtly during the daytime
to 10-12kts, going more out of the NE past 12z. Winds will go
more easterly at 5-7kts toward daybreak Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs are likely Wednesday
night into Thursday. MVFR CIGs may linger into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 3:02 AM EST---------------
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