ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 3:09 AM EST216
FXUS61 KILN 110809
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
309 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions will prevail about the region through Wednesday
before the next system brings rain back into the area by
Wednesday night into Thursday. Near normal temperatures are
expected through the upcoming week, with drier conditions
returning by Friday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The cold front, along with the associated cloud cover, continues
to push away from the ILN FA, leaving clear skies in its wake
toward daybreak for the area. Sfc flow will remain out of the
WNW at about 5-10kts as temps range from the lower 40s (EC IN
and WC OH) to lower 50s (the lower Scioto Valley) by sunrise.
For the daytime, expect that some stratocu will pivot back into
the region from the N, leading to increasing cloud cover
progressively from N to S through early afternoon. Expect that
locales near/S of the OH Rvr should stay the clearest through
the daytime, but there should be at least some Cu/stratocu just
about everywhere by midday, with the most cohesive cloud cover
near/N of I-71.
Highs today should reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s amidst
breezy conditions from mid morning through mid afternoon. Gusts
around 20-25 MPH are expected before subsiding a bit late in
the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A second S/W pivoting to the SE through the Great Lakes/OH Vlys
by late this evening will bring with it another cold front,
which will move quickly from N to S through the ILN FA this
evening. This will be marked by a sharp wind shift to out of the
N, along with a reinforcing shot of seasonably chilly air, which
will settle in by daybreak Tuesday. Temps tonight should bottom
out in the mid to upper 30s before rebounding to the lower 50s
by Tuesday afternoon amidst mostly cloudy skies.
Cloud cover should slowly erode/scatter out late in the day
Tuesday, yielding to clear skies toward sunset and beyond as
high pressure drifts E of the region by Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure shifts farther northeast of the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday. This will allow winds to veer toward the south by
late on Wednesday and temperatures and dew points to start
increasing. On Wednesday night through Thursday, a low pressure
system is forecast to progress through the lakes. Rain chances
increase over the Ohio Valley during this time period as a warm
front and cold front move through. Upper level forcing will also be
present which should help support widespread rainfall.
High pressure builds in from the west behind the front Thursday
night through Saturday. Despite the drop in temperatures, readings
still remain above mid November averages. Rain chances increase
Sunday into Monday when the next cold front is forecast to approach
the area.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies have trended clearer for the local sites in the post-
frontal environment, but additional stratocu will work back into
the area for the daytime, leading to SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR conditions
for the afternoon. The best coverage of CIGs will drift to the
S/SE through the daytime, eventually reaching KCVG/KLUK past
18z. These CIGs may briefly scatter out following the passage of
a secondary front between about 00z-02z, but should return once
again toward/beyond 06z for end of KCVG 30-hr TAF period.
WNW winds around 10kts early in the period will subside a bit
toward daybreak before diurnally-driven mixing leads to WSW at
12-15kts, with gusts to around 20-25kts at times, during the
early afternoon. These winds should again subside to 10-12kts
slowly past 21z, eventually going out of the NNW at 10kts or
less late in the period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday night into
Thursday. MVFR CIGs may linger into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 3:09 AM EST---------------
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