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000 FXUS64 KLIX 101752AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1152 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024...New UPDATE, AVIATION....UPDATE...Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024Will be updating the forecast after the top of the hour for theexpiration of the Flood Watch over the northwest corner of theCWA. Still patchy light to moderate rain across the area, but nomajor issues at this time. However, there is a band ofrain/thunderstorms offshore of Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes.It hasn't made much, if any, progress northward over the lastcouple of hours, but if it were to move inland, it would be afocus for heavy rainfall. Most modeling does keep this areaoffshore, but we'll keep an eye on it. Will make a few temperatureadjustments, as it's going to take clouds breaking to get muchwarming at all this afternoon.&&.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024First thing is first today...at the time of this discussion thecurrent temperature was around 78F here at ASD. This is about 28degrees warmer than we should be this time of year assuming thiswill be our low temperature for the date. In other words, "summerlight" will continue at least through the short term, however,with a bit of a caveat. This would of course be with higher rainchances and increased cloudiness does afternoon high temperaturesreally maximize potential. The short answer will be no. Although,even with clouds and showers around, MSY did nearly break a recordhigh temperatures yesterday (just 2 degrees off). This along withagain we are 28 degrees above average lows here at ASD, shouldproperly articulate the fact that it has been and will continue tobe unseasonably warm through the short term period. Going into today, POPs will be there generally across the board atleast at some point, but certainly at this juncture we aren'texpecting a complete wash out with dry air filtering into theregion from the southwest. As the surface the front still resideupstream across SW and Cen LA this morning. The front, has becomea bit more diffuse over time, but still enough low levelconvergence to help develop some convection to our west. Gettingto a bit more specifics in terms of timing with shower activitytoday, it becomes a bit trick with locations along and west of I55having the higher POPs (although nonzero elsewhere as well), whichmay in up shifting through the day to the south shore and MS GulfCoast eventually. At this juncture, PWATs have lowered as compared to yesterday, so the categorical ERO is much lower than what was seen upstream today, but cannot rule out at least some minor flooding if training of cells develop over the city or the MS Gulf Coast. This appears to be the exception rather than the rule. With the decrease in overall consensus QPF values, the threat for flash flood has decreased, so will probably cancel the FFA sometime shortly after the morning package goes out. By Monday, most of the residual rainfall from the tropicalmoisture associated with the weakening Rafael well to our south,will likely linger across the Gulf Waters and perhaps lowerPlaquemines as the weak frontal boundary upstream finally movesthrough as the upper level pattern adjusts to a more progressiveor zonal pattern aloft. Low level winds should begin to shift abit to a more east or northeast direction. As this happens, thecoastal flooding threat should begin to decrease...so the nexthigh tide cycle should be the final for needing a coastal floodheadline. (Frye) &&.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024A weak H5 ridge will center over the northern Gulf early in theweek. Residual moisture from the remains of Rafael will stilllinger across the western Gulf of Mexico through the first fewdays of the long term period. Our upper level mean flow shouldtransition back to a southerly or active southwesterly flow bymidweek or so as the upper level ridge spread east toward Florida.The aforementioned moisture should begin to lift northward againand will begin to interact with an upcoming weak frontal boundary.Rain chances do increase on Wednesday and Thursday, but at this juncture it appears most of the low level moisture misses our region to the west, so POPs reflect a lower probability.Models are still in disagreement beyond midweek with a frontalpassage. The ECM is now showing a full frontal passage, which willclear out any residual low level moisture. However, the GFS hastrended to be less in terms of a frontal passage. GFS now istrending wetter and slower in terms of placement. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024Most terminals with MVFR conditions occasionally lowering to IFRbriefly within patches of rain. Threat of TSRA is rather limited,and if it is going to occur, it'd be in the next 6 hours or so,with KHUM the favored terminal. MVFR conditions likely to lower toIFR at multiple terminals after sunset, even as any widespreadprecipitation ends. Potential for very low conditions exists aftermidnight tonight where winds decouple in the moist airmass.Favored terminals for this would be KMCB/KBTR and perhaps KHDC.Expect MVFR conditions to return at mid-morning Monday, and thenperhaps VFR Monday afternoon.&&.MARINE...Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024Hazardous marine conditions will (respectively) continues acrossthe local waters through this evening in most cases with theouter waters holding onto those conditions. Eventually, as TS Rafael continues to quickly weaken over the central Gulf, surface flow and winds should eventually become more favorable, especially by Tuesday morning. (Frye) &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 78 65 78 57 / 70 30 10 10 BTR 82 69 83 62 / 60 20 10 10 ASD 81 68 80 63 / 50 40 30 20 MSY 80 70 79 67 / 60 40 30 20 GPT 80 68 78 64 / 50 50 30 20 PQL 84 68 82 64 / 50 50 40 20 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Flood Watch until noon CST today for LAZ034>036. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ057-058-060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ550- 552-555-557-577. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ570-572- 575.MS...Flood Watch until noon CST today for MSZ068-069. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ086.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ552- 555-557-577. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ572-575.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION/UPDATE...RWMARINE...RDF
