JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 1:01 PM EST364
FXUS63 KJKL 121801 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
101 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An approaching cold front will increase chances for rain from
Wednesday night to Thursday evening.
- Temperatures will be near normal today through Friday, with the
exception of a slight uptick on Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
Hourly grids were updated based on observation and satellite
trends. The dry airmass in place is warming quite readily and some
upward adjustments to afternoon temperatures may be needed and
this scenario will continue to be monitored.
UPDATE Issued at 625 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
09Z sfc analysis shows a cold front now south of Kentucky while
cooler and drier high pressure is building in from the northwest.
This has made for mostly clear skies this night with a decent
ridge to valley temperature split showing up along with some fog
in the deeper river valleys. Currently, temperatures vary from the
mid 40s on the hills to the upper 30s in the most sheltered low
spots. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints range
from the mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s in the far southeast.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a trough to the northeast retreating to the east
today as weak ridging builds into the area from the Plains. This
results in northwest flow for a time into the evening with some
ineffectual, amorphous energy drifting through eastern Kentucky.
Ridging builds over the state tonight into early Wednesday before
sliding past bringing a change to southwest flow at mid levels in
advance of a deep, full-latitude trough moving out of the Front
Range. This switch in winds off the sfc will allow for more heat
and moisture to work back into the area from the southwest toward
evening on Wednesday as a lead impulse or two starts to brush the
JKL CWA while the next 5h trough digs closer. On account of the
fairly small spread among the models, have favored the NBM as the
starting point for the forecast grids with mainly adjustments to
temperatures at night for terrain distinctions as well as some
inclusion of CAMS details in the PoPs and Wx grids from 18Z
Wednesday to 00Z Thursday.
Sensible weather features cooler and more seasonable temperatures
today with dry conditions holding along with plenty of sunshine.
For tonight, look for another bout of good radiational cooling
leading to lows in the low and mid 30s in the valleys and lower
40s on the ridges. For Wednesday, warmer air will flow back into
the region along with an uptick in the dewpoints on southeasterly
winds with even a chance for showers in the I-75 corridor before
dark as the next frontal system approaches from the west.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
adjusting the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction early
this morning and again tonight. As for PoPs: included the latest
CAMs guidance for timing and areal coverage adjustments late in
the period as that next system moves into the state.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 443 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
The extended will start off quite active, as a strong area of low
pressure is expected to move through the region. This system will
bring widespread rain showers to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
regions Wednesday night and Thursday. The rain will gradually taper
off Thursday night, and should exit the area by early Friday morning.
The latest models have a large trough of low pressure spinning off
the eastern seaboard, with strong high pressure, at the surface and
aloft, sprawled across New England, the eastern Great Lakes, and
southward down the eastern CONUS into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
West of the high our next weather maker will be taking shape and
moving out of the Great Plains and across the Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to begin the period. Another
high pressure system will be in place along the Rocky Mountains and
western and southern Plains, with another well developed low
pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest. This overall
pattern will shift to the east mid-week, bringing rain to eastern
Kentucky. After the first low pressure system moves off to our east
early Friday, the western ridge will move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys heading into the weekend. This system
will bring dry and warmer weather to our area. Cooler temperatures
will be on tap again in the wake of the first low pressure area. The
weekend ridge should begin to break down and move off to our east to
begin the new work, as another area of low pressure moves in from
the west. This system could bring scattered showers back to eastern
Kentucky Sunday night through Monday night. No weather hazards
expected in the extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
aviation forecast period as a ridge of high pressure shifts east.
Fog is expected to develop in the river valleys between about 04Z
and 13Z, with some reductions to MVFR or IFR though TAF sites will
not be affected. Winds most of the time will be light and variable
however, northeast winds at 5 to 10KT are expected through around
with a slight in bump in northeasterly winds to between 5 and 10KT
through around 00Z. An uptick in winds from the southeast at
around or in excess of 5KT should occur to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 1:01 PM EST---------------
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