ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 7:10 PM EST069
FXUS61 KILN 110010
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
710 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to track through the Great Lakes overnight with
southward trailing cold front sweeping through the region.
Breezy conditions and rain will come to an end with the passage
of the front. Dry weather conditions return for the first part
of the work week as high pressure builds back in. The next
threat for rain arrives later Wednesday with the approach of a
frontal system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mid level low and stacked surface low to track east thru the
Great Lakes overnight. Associated surface cold front to sweep
east thru ILN/s FA this evening and precipitation will taper off
from west to east. Winds shift to out of the west and gusts
will decrease as we head into the overnight. Clouds look to
decrease in the wake of the front with skies becoming partly
clouds to mostly clear. Overnight temperatures fall to lows
ranging from the lower 40s west to the mid/upper 40s east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest mid/upper level flow with compact shortwave dropping
thru the northern Great Lakes. Gradient tightens in response to
this shortwave with secondary cold front dropping southeast thru
the Ohio Valley. The front will come thru dry but shallow
moisture will result in scattered to broken clouds - with the
best coverage across the north during the afternoon in low level
CAA regime. High temperatures range from the upper 50s in the
north where cloud cover is thickest, to the low 60s in the
south.
A broad area of surface high pressure will begin to build into
the area Monday night. Clouds to decrease leading to mostly
clear sky conditions. This will allow temperatures to drop to
lows from the lower 30s north to the mid/upper 30s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions will be in place Tuesday through the day on
Wednesday. With CAA on Tuesday high temperatures will be near 50
degrees and expect CAA cu. After a cool start to the day on
Wednesday, high temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the
middle 50s to lower 60s with WAA.
Precipitation chances return Wednesday night through Thursday
night as the next system approaches and moves through the
region. There is a little more model variability today than
there has been the past couple of days. Due to this have limited
precipitation chances to the likely category, however
precipitation chances will likely need to be raised once timing
details are resolved.
Dry conditions will be in place Friday and Saturday with above
normal high temperatures expected. The next system will start to
work into the region Sunday and into Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will push east across the region this evening into
early morning. MVFR, local IFR ceilings will become VFR
(scattering of clouds) behind frontal passage. A stray shower
will exist until frontal passage, but that appears too low at
this point to include in the terminals. Winds will veer to the
west, becoming sustained between 5 and 15 knots will gustiness
subsiding overnight.
Weak surface ridging will exist for the first part of Monday.
Another cold front will then push southeast across the area
during the afternoon into the evening. Some cumuliform clouds
will develop along and ahead of the front. Bases should mainly
be VFR, but some pockets of MVFR (around 2500 feet) may occur
north of the terminals. The front is expected to pass through
dry. An increasing pressure gradient, diurnal mixing, and CAA
behind the front will make for gusty west to northwest winds (up
to 25 knots) from late morning into early evening. Clouds will
scatter Monday night as CAA continues and high pressure builds
southeast into the Ohio Valley. Winds will diminish and will
veer to the north.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday night into
Thursday. MVFR ceilings may linger into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 7:10 PM EST---------------
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