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808 FXUS64 KMOB 111105AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL505 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday)Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024A weak shortwave trough embedded within westerly to northwesterly flow aloft is translating across our forecast area early this morning. The remnant surface low associated with Rafael remains located over the west central Gulf well offshore from the Louisiana coast and a surface boundary extends northeast from this feature and is oriented south of our coastal interface along the northern Gulf. A plume of enhanced deep layer moisture with high precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches is located near and just south of our coastal areas early this morning where radar indicates the continued development of numerous light to moderate rain showers along the vicinity of the boundary. Patchy fog will develop over interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL through the early morning hours. Another surface boundary/cold front extending from central LA into northwest MS early this morning will slowly push southeast toward our northwestern zones today before entering our CWA tonight. Deep layer moisture will continue to pool along southern/coastal portions of our CWA and adjacent marine zones through the day, where scattered to numerous rain showers will continue to develop into the afternoon hours. We will keep POPs highest (40-60%) over southern portions of our area today with coverage much more limited over our northern zones. Highs today should only range in the 70s across the region.The moisture plume will remain in place over southern portions of our area this evening/tonight as the aforementioned boundary becomes oriented near the coast. We will maintain a chance of rain showers over the southern part of our area through tonight. Weak ridging aloft may tend to develop over our forecast area on Tuesday though short range/high resolution models maintain the persistent moisture plume over our central/southern zones along the vicinity of the persistent boundary. The NBM keeps a dry forecast, but has been dry biased with POPs the past couple of days. With multiple solutions showing development of isolated to scattered showers over our area within the moist environment along the boundary, will opt to keep low POPs over southern parts of the forecast area on Tuesday. Lows tonight should range in the mid 50s to around 60 over our northern counties behind the front and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees along and ahead of the boundary near the coast. Highs on Tuesday should range in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.A high risk of rip currents will continue today and tonight along the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches. The risk may briefly become moderate on Tuesday/Tuesday night before increasing to a high risk again Wednesday into Thursday. /21 &&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024While the start will be dry our next chance for rain moves inquickly Wednesday into Wednesday night. Upper ridging at the startof the period will quickly give way to a quick hitting upper trough moving across the Great Lakes. A cold front will push intothe area sometime on Thursday. Upper forcing will quickly moveacross the area leading to widespread rain and potentially a fewrumbles of thunder along and ahead of the approaching front. Whilelikely not sticking around long, PWATs approaching 2 inches will allowing for some heavier rain within the stronger storms and someareas will likely pickup a decent chunk of rain in the 1 to 2 inch range. Once the rain moves out on Thursday, high pressure will build over the western Gulf leading to dry northwesterly flowacross the area. Temperatures will cool temporarily during the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40sto low 50s. Temperatures warm up heading into next week as theupper ridge flattens out and southwesterly flow once againdevelops ahead of our next system. BB/03&&.MARINE...Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024A light to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow will prevail over the marine area today. Easterly flow increases by Tuesday night into Wednesday, with wind speeds near Small Craft Advisory thresholds over the Gulf zones. Moderate offshore flow will prevail Thursday into Friday following the passage of a cold front. /21 &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 77 65 79 66 77 65 77 56 / 60 30 20 10 50 60 20 10 Pensacola 75 68 78 67 76 68 77 59 / 50 20 20 10 30 50 30 10 Destin 79 69 81 67 78 68 77 60 / 40 20 20 10 10 50 30 10 Evergreen 79 60 80 60 74 58 75 49 / 20 20 10 0 30 60 30 10 Waynesboro 80 57 78 60 76 61 76 51 / 10 10 0 10 40 70 20 10 Camden 78 57 77 57 72 57 71 48 / 10 0 0 0 30 60 30 0 Crestview 79 63 83 62 79 60 78 51 / 40 20 20 0 20 50 30 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
