JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:25 PM EST226
FXUS63 KJKL 102025
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wetting rain is expected through Monday morning.
- Normal to above normal temperatures will occur through the
middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 206 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
Most locations from the Cumberland Plateau of TN and into KY as
well as much of eastern and southeastern KY was free of convection
at this time. Convective allowing models such as the HRRR have a
decent handle on this and in the more southeastern locations,
chances for convection today is minimal. However, as the cold
front nears and an upper level disturbance approach, chances for
convection should peak during the evening to a couple of hours
after midnight. Chances were made to hourly pops to account for
these trends which were to lower pops in the more southeastern
locations until dark or after. Temperatures were also running
warmer than forecast and in some cases forecast highs had been
reached or exceeded. Adjustments to temperatures were made
accordingly based on recent observations and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 1102 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
Steadier showers were lifting to the north and east of eastern KY
at this point as a warm front lifts further to the north and east
of the area and eastern KY. In the warm sector some scattered
showers have developed. Showers and perhaps a storm or two will
remain possible into the afternoon, before coverage of convection
likely increases late in the afternoon to early this evening in
advance of an approaching cold front and shortwave trough. Some
adjustments were made to hourly pops based on recent radar trends
with additional changes to hourly grids based on recent
observations. Overall, this led to no substantial changes at this
point.
UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
No significant updates to the forecast package at this time. H850
(50-60kts) and H925 (30-40kts) LLJ will be increasing across the
area over the next several hours, and surface winds will increase
and become gusty in response to some of those higher winds mixing
down. Kentucky mesonet observations are beginning to reflect this
increase with recent reports. Shower activity will be waning a bit
over the next few hours as well. Initial round of shower activity
provided several hundredths to as much as a quarter inch of
rainfall to a large portion of the area overnight. This is a good
start to some much needed rain for the area. After a relative lull
in activity through the middle of the day, showers will again
increase in coverage and intensity as the cold front to our west
bares down on the area. Updated hourly grids to capture latest
trends. Otherwise, the current forecast has things covered.
Updated grids have been issued. No changes anticipated for the
zone product at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
Aloft, the short term starts out with what has been a persistent,
stubborn ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. and a cutoff low
over the Upper Midwest. By the end of the short term, this low
tracks east-northeast through the Great Lakes and into eastern
Quebec, opening into a trough as it pushes across Canada. This
system is strong enough that the aforementioned ridge flattens and
retreats well southward of the CONUS, allowing the core westerlies
to shift southward closer to Ohio Valley. A surface low follows the
same path as its associated low aloft, dragging a cold front
eastward through the Commonwealth. The cold front manages to pass
through and exit eastern Kentucky by Monday morning. A second,
reinforcing cold front drops quickly southward behind the first,
almost reaching the Ohio River Valley by the end of the period.
Sensible weather finally features unsettled weather, and hopefully a
wetter outworn in the end than models have advertised thus
far...as QPF is concerned. QPF is the main challenge of the short
term. Model solutions have been inconsistent at best with
considerable swings in overall QPF through 12Z Monday. Thus far
enough moisture has overspread the area and moistened up the
boundary layer so that measurable precipitation has been realized.
Actually, the Kentucky Mesonet shows a large portion of the
forecast area has already received some rain, though light in
nature...less than a tenth of an inch at any given location. Thus
far, the only areas not to have measured are locations across the
far southeast, stretching roughly from Whitley/Bell counties
northeast to Pike. Considering that solutions are underperforming
so far provides some higher confidence that we could see a solid
wetting rain before the short term wraps up. At this time, totals
on the order of a quarter of an inch are expected across our
southern counties, and upwards of a half to one inch over our
Bluegrass counties. The latest LREF probabilistic guidance shows a
70-100% chance of getting a quarter inch of rainfall over the
entire forecast area, and a 40-60% chance of up to one half inch
of total rainfall over the southeastern half of the forecast area,
60-100% across our northwestern zones. This is very promising for
the area to finally get some much needed rainfall should this pan
out. Totals would be aided if we manage to get any thunderstorm
activity. However, overall probabilities for thunder remain low
through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
By Tuesday morning a negatively tilted trough resides over the
Intermountain West, while a ridge of high pressure expands from east
of The Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic. This high amplitude ridge has
its axis extending as far north as the provinces of northern
Manitoba, and western Ontario.
Across eastern Kentucky, expect dry conditions Tuesday, and most of
the day Wednesday, with cool temperatures in the mid 50s under light
northeasterly winds. Mostly clear conditions Tuesday night will aid
in temperatures dropping into the 30s, with valleys in the low 30s.
Wednesday, the previously mentioned trough in the west begins its
progression into the Central Plains. This approaching system
combined with the ridge exiting to the east, will veer winds out of
the south. This will help drive temperatures into the mid to upper
60s in the afternoon. Moisture is also expected to increase through
the day, as the approaching system draws on moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. Currently dew points are forecast to be highest across
western and central Kentucky before moderating into the 40s over
eastern Kentucky heading into the evening. As nightfall approaches,
so does a cold front, bringing showers to the area, close to
midnight. Lows should generally be in the mid 40s. Thursday, off and
on showers continue through the afternoon, tapering off heading into
the evening. Highs will be cooler, near 60 in most spots. Lows will
be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Just over half of the ensemble
members in the WPC Cluster Analysis favor a wetter solution with
this system. The probability of the area seeing a quarter inch or
more ranges from 44% to 61%. However ensemble consistency has been
back and forth with this solution. Forecaster confidence is low to
moderate due to this variability.
Friday and Saturday, a ridge of high pressure builds back in from
the west, leading to dry conditions each of those days. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the mid 60s by Saturday. Models are
hinting at another upper low and cold front bringing shower chances
across eastern Kentucky by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
As of issuance time, a relative lull in convection was taking
place for all but KSYM with VFR prevailing over eastern KY and
south central KY. However, between 20Z and 02Z, showers will
again increase in coverage and intensity as a cold front to our
west and northwest nears preceding a mid and upper level
disturbances with VFR deteriorating to MVFR in some cases. From
about 20Z in the far northwest to as late at 05Z to 06Z, a band of
MVFR and FIR ceilings and or visibilities should spread across
the area along and near the cold front with showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms. However, any thunderstorms are expected to be
isolated and confidence in timing and location was not high enough
to include even VCTS at this time. South to southwest winds are
expected ahead of the cold front in the 6 to 12KT range with some
gusts to around 20KT. Mainly west winds are expected behind the
front, starting around 04Z in the west and around 09Z in the far
eastern locations. Behind the front, ceilings will improve back to
MVFR and then VFR behind the front with MVFR forecast to return
to all areas by 15Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:25 PM EST---------------
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