LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 3:32 AM EST281
FXUS63 KLMK 110832
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
332 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather for Veterans Day with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 60s. Cooler tonight with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
* Mostly dry week ahead other than scattered showers Wednesday
night. Temperatures slightly warmer than normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 332 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
A cold front is sinking southeast through central KY early this
morning, stretching from roughly Nicholasville to Bowling Green as
of this writing. Temperatures are in the low 60s southeast of the
boundary and low to mid 50s northwest of the boundary. Rain showers
have dissipated, with only a fine line lingering on radar. The front
is also very evident in sfc obs and satellite imagery, with low
stratus confined to areas along and southeast of the front. Winds
will continue to veer NW in the wake of the front and then diminish
this morning. The low clouds will largely clear out from NW to SE
over the Bluegrass and south-central KY prior to sunrise.
Temperatures will continue to dip into the low to mid 40s across
southern IN by sunrise, with low to mid 50s in south-central KY.
Today, we'll see a good amount of sunshine. Some scattered stratocu
looks possible by early to mid-afternoon. Light winds this morning
will increase to 5-10 mph out of the WNW this afternoon.
Temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low to mid 60s.
Tonight, strong ridging drifts east over the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes. Low-level flow veers northerly, advecting
cooler and drier air into the region. Expect a dry night with mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows will range from the mid 30s to
lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
Tuesday, upper ridging continues to amplify as it pushes east into
the Ohio Valley. At the surface, the center of high pressure over
the western Great Lakes will get pushed east-northeast throughout
the day. This will lessen the CAA over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky as winds veer from the northeast towards the east. Even
with sunny skies, temperatures will be limited to the low 50s, in
parts of southern Indiana and the Bluegrass of Kentucky, to around
60, in southern Kentucky. Tuesday night will be another cool night
with temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s before WAA arrives early
Wednesday.
Wednesday, a weak upper trough will slide across the Plains, pushing
a surface low from eastern South Dakota east along the
Minnesota/Iowa border. The system's trailing cold front pushes east
towards the CWA. Ahead of the cold front, WAA will lift temperatures
into the 60s before rain chances begin increasing Wednesday
afternoon. The GFS is wetter now than it was 24 hours ago, falling
closer to the Euro, and now that this time period is being picked up
by the NAM, all the models have good agreement on deep moisture
above 700 mb and fairly dry low levels. This could help delay or
limit showers. Overall, guidance is showing better moisture to the
south, over southern Kentucky and farther south. Given the time of
day and lack of instability, this looks to be an all rain event
without thunder. Rainfall totals have increased to 0.3" to 0.8" with
the higher amounts being over southern Kentucky.
For the end of the week and weekend, upper ridging will bring
clearing skies and warming temperatures every day into the weekend,
but by the end of the weekend into early next week, another system
will begin increasing rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
Sfc cold front has just pushed through SDF and will continue
southeast through BWG/LEX/RGA over the next couple of hours. Winds
will veer NW and then diminish behind the cold front. BKN low
stratus lingers along and southeast of the boundary. Expect low-end
MVFR/borderline IFR ceilings at LEX/RGA until drier air arrives in
the wake of the front. A fine line is noted on radar over the
northern Bluegrass, so LEX could also see brief VCSH as the front
pushes through.
This afternoon, WNW sfc winds are forecast to increase to 5-10 kts.
A narrow layer of moisture between 2-3 kft AGL trapped beneath a low-
level inversion should allow for SCT clouds this afternoon,
especially after ~17Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 11, 3:32 AM EST---------------
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