JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:37 AM EST336
FXUS63 KJKL 100837
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
337 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wetting rain is expected through Monday morning.
- Normal to above normal temperatures will occur through the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
Aloft, the short term starts out with what has been a persistent,
stubborn ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. and a cutoff low
over the Upper Midwest. By the end of the short term, this low
tracks east-northeast through the Great Lakes and into eastern
Quebec, opening into a trough as it pushes across Canada. This
system is strong enough that the aforementioned ridge flattens and
retreats well southward of the CONUS, allowing the core westerlies
to shift southward closer to Ohio Valley. A surface low follows the
same path as its associated low aloft, dragging a cold front
eastward through the Commonwealth. The cold front manages to pass
through and exit eastern Kentucky by Monday morning. A second,
reinforcing cold front drops quickly southward behind the first,
almost reaching the Ohio River Valley by the end of the period.
Sensible weather finally features unsettled weather, and hopefully a
wetter outturn in the end than models have advertised thus far...as
QPF is concerned. QPF is the main challenge of the short term. Model
solutions have been inconsistent at best with considerable swings in
overall QPF through 12Z Monday. Thus far enough moisture has
overspread the area and moistened up the boundary layer so that
measurable precipitation has been realized. Actually, the Kentucky
Mesonet shows a large portion of the forecast area has already
received some rain, though light in nature...less than a tenth of an
inch at any given location. Thus far, the only areas not to have
measured are locations across the far southeast, stretching
roughly from Whitley/Bell counties northeast to Pike. Considering
that solutions are underperforming so far provides some higher
confidence that we could see a solid wetting rain before the
short term wraps up. At this time, totals on the order of a
quarter of an inch are expected across our southern counties, and
upwards of a half to one inch over our Bluegrass counties. The
latest LREF probabilistic guidance shows a 70-100% chance of
getting a quarter inch of rainfall over the entire forecast area,
and a 40-60% chance of up to one half inch of total rainfall over
the southeastern half of the forecast area, 60-100% across our
northwestern zones. This is very promising for the area to finally
get some much needed rainfall should this pan out. Totals would
be aided if we manage to get any thunderstorm activity. However,
overall probabilities for thunder remain low through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
The period begins with good agreement on surface high pressure
settling eastward and cresting across the Great Lakes. This will
bring northeast flow at the surface for Tuesday, and therefore highs
will come in a few degrees below normal for this time of year in the
northern parts of the CWA, with highs in the low 50s. However, the
far southeast will be closer to normal with highs around 60s
degrees. This will really depend on how far southward a dry cold
front gets that is expected to dive across the area by Tuesday
afternoon. This will set the stage for decent ridge/valley splits
Tuesday night, with lows in the low to mid 30s in the valleys and
mid to upper 30s on the ridges under mostly clear skies.
This previously mentioned high pressure is expected to push east by
Wednesday. This will bring southerly flow back to the area and help
to drive afternoon highs back above normal in the mid to upper 60s.
Then all eyes turn toward a trough working into the Midwest by
Wednesday. This system continues to be difficult to predict, as
modeling systems are struggling to deal with blocking to the east.
This system also will have both a southern and northern stream
component as they phase Wednesday night into Thursday. The cluster
analysis shows this uncertainty with two of the clusters showing a
drier solution to the larger ensemble mean. Either way, the 24-hour
period from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM Thursday are only showing around
a 50 percent chance of seeing greater than a tenth of an inch of
rain. This is supported by PWAT values of less than 1 inch in most
cases in the ensemble systems. Therefore, seeing a wetting rain from
this event doesn't look great right now. However, there are some
wetter ensemble systems and even the slower solution seen in some of
the ECMWF data would be helpful for slightly higher amounts.
The uncertainly in the forecast rolls on into the end of the period.
This as differing in phasing will lead to differing solutions on the
depth of the ridging coming in and also on how quickly we see high
pressure. Either way the NBM drier solution seems reasonable at this
point Friday through Saturday. This will bring highs back above
normal to round out the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
Showers continue to move into the area tonight, but the boundary
layer is so dry that little is reaching the ground. While it will
take awhile to moisten up the atmosphere, terminals further west
(KSME, KLOZ, KSYM) will have the best chance of measuring rainfall
through the overnight. On average, our terminals will remain in
VFR territory through much of the forecast period. However, most
of our terminals will succumb to the shower activity with CIGS
and VSBYS dropping into at least MVFR territory during the last
3-6 hours of the TAF period. Smoke is impacting a few of our
terminals, particularly KJKL and KSJS where wildfire smoke is
filtering into those sites and causing periods of reduction in
VSBY down into MVFR levels. This will continue to occur until
either showers become widespread enough to wash some of the smoke
out, or until the cold front to our west gets close enough to
allow gradient winds to mix the smoke out. Ahead of the front,
LLWS will be possible at KSYM through the early morning time
frame. There will also be a potential of some thunderstorms across
the area. However, activity is expected to be isolated enough
that any impacts on our terminals would be low and temporary.
Winds will increase as the cold front approaches through the day,
climbing to around 10 kts with gusts as high as about 15-20 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:37 AM EST---------------
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